By Maximilian Heath
BUENOS AIRES, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Argentina's corn exports are expected to reach a record 10 million metric tons in August and September, driven by a bumper harvest and strong international demand as buyers seek alternatives to Ukrainian supplies disrupted by war and European crops battered by extreme heat.
The world's third-largest corn exporter is wrapping up its 2025/26 harvest, estimated at 71.7 million tons, nearly 20% above the previous record set five years ago, according
to government data.
"Argentine corn right now is very competitive in price and in volume," Gustavo Idigoras, head of the CIARA-CEC grains exporters and crushers chamber, told Reuters. Normal export volumes for August-September typically reach about 3 million tons, he added.
Idigoras said demand from North African countries — typically buyers of Ukrainian grain — has been the primary driver. "In the last months we've had meetings with several North African countries, who want to have deeper commercial ties with Argentine exporters," he said, without naming specific countries.
Data from Argentina's statistics agency INDEC shows corn shipments to North Africa rose 45% in the first seven months of 2026, to 6.5 million tons, compared with overall export growth of 15% during the same period.
Morocco led the surge, with imports of Argentine corn jumping 133% year-on-year to 1.55 million tons. Egypt followed with a 48% increase to 2.4 million, while Algerian imports grew 10% to 2.4 million tons.
BLACK SEA BOTTLENECK
The trade shift comes as Russia has intensified strikes on export infrastructure in Ukraine's Odesa region, home to the country's main Black Sea ports. The attacks have effectively blocked seaports that once handled 90% of Ukraine's grain exports, forcing Kyiv to divert cargo through lower-capacity Danube River ports.
But drought and record heat waves across Europe have drained water levels along the already congested Danube, further constraining Ukrainian shipments, which dropped 52% last month.
"Today, the only way Ukraine can move its production is (over) land. It will very probably end up in Europe, in France, where the heat wave has thrashed corn yields," said Javier Preciado Patiño, an analyst and former trade secretary for Argentina. He said Ukraine's overseas markets are up for grabs.
BRAZILIAN BACKDROP
Argentina's export surge also reflects shifting dynamics in neighboring Brazil, the world's second-largest corn exporter. Brazilian shipments have fallen nearly 20% from a record 53 million tons over the past three years, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data. That drop has worked to Argentina's advantage, Idigoras said.
Much of the corn that exporters would have loaded at ports such as Santos or Itaqui is instead supplying Brazil's booming ethanol industry, made up of over 300 production units running on sugar or corn.
Dante Romano, research manager for Rosario-based grains broker Max Agro, said Brazil's domestic demand for corn was "impressive" and growing each year. According to the USDA, Brazil's corn consumption increased 7.1% in 2025/26 to 98 million tons on a season-to-season basis.
"This is important for Argentina because Brazil is a strong corn market competitor, and less corn there for shipping means better commercial opportunities for Argentine exporters," added Romano.
(Reporting by Maximilian Heath. Editing by Lucinda Elliott and Rod Nickel)
