By Siddharth Cavale and Jarrett Renshaw
NEW YORK, July 2 (Reuters) - President Donald Trump's effort to boost production of bio-based diesel and deliver on promises to farmers and rural communities is colliding with a market reality: U.S. plants are not keeping up with his targets.
The production gap carries political and economic risks.
A sustained shortfall could send renewable fuel credit prices sharply higher and force the Trump administration to invoke a rarely used provision allowing it to lower
the mandates it previously set to reflect market conditions. Such an unusual retreat would upset farmers and biofuel producers who fought for larger quotas and who make up an important political constituency heading in to midterm elections.
The Environmental Protection Agency, which administers U.S. biofuel policy, set record biofuel blending targets for 2026 under the Renewable Fuel Standard, a law that requires refiners to blend prescribed volumes of ethanol and biodiesel into the fuel supply or buy compliance credits known as RINs.
OUTPUT LAGS BEHIND EPA MANDATES
For 2026, oil refiners must generate or purchase 8.86 billion RINs, the equivalent of blending a record 5.4 billion gallons of biodiesel and renewable diesel — a target that is over 60% higher than 2025 levels. Trump has touted the moves as a sign of his support for farmers.
The EPA mandate assumes producers can run at about 90% of capacity over the course of the year. Instead, operating rates at U.S. biodiesel plants were just under 77% in May, while renewable diesel facilities were at 78%, according to Zander Capozzola, principal consultant at Argus Media.
Some production is also committed to export contracts, where prices have been stronger because of supply disruptions tied to the Iran war. Those gallons do not generate credits toward EPA mandates.
Refiners generated 736 million RINs in May, according to EPA data, well below the roughly 915 million needed each month to stay on pace, said Scott Irwin, an agricultural economist at the University of Illinois.
He estimates production through the first four months of 2026 lagged required levels by 1.41 billion RINs, a gap that would require output to exceed the industry's highest monthly production by more than 20% for the remainder of the year.
"The mandates effectively require biodiesel plants to run at their highest sustained pace on record and renewable diesel plants to operate well beyond any pace they’ve ever achieved," Irwin said.
"There is no way the industry is going to meet its targets at the rate they are going," said Paul Niznik, director of energy at Washington, D.C.-based Capstone LLC, which advises refineries, fuel marketers and hedge fund clients. "The shortfall is causing widespread concern across the industry and what the policy reaction might be."
He added that market participants do not expect the EPA to intervene, despite having the authority to grant a waiver, and instead could consider measures such as lowering 2028 obligations by changing how imported volumes are counted toward obligations.
POLICY UNCERTAINTY STALLED PRODUCTION
Production was held back for months as biodiesel and renewable diesel producers waited for the Trump administration to finalize guidance for the federal 45Z clean fuel production tax credit.
The guidance, released in recent weeks, removed some land-use restrictions and increased incentives for soy-based renewable diesel, changes the industry had sought for a year.
The changes provide greater certainty to expand production and sign feedstock contracts with farmers, said Jeramie Weller, general manager of Minnesota Soybean Processors, a biodiesel producer. Though the changes will likely hike output, it remains unclear whether they came soon enough to offset earlier production losses.
A surge in petroleum prices tied to the Iran conflict also dampened growth in biodiesel production, as supply disruptions boosted margins for conventional fuels, giving refiners greater incentive to maximize petroleum-based output rather than increase renewable fuel production.
SHRINKING CREDIT MARKET
Lower-than-expected production is also depleting a cushion that has historically helped the market absorb shortfalls.
The so-called RIN bank — a stockpile of unused credits refiners can draw on to meet mandates — has been steadily depleted this year as production falls short and demand remains high. If the trend continues, analysts warn the buffer could be exhausted by the end of 2026, boosting prices for the credits.
RIN prices have already surged to record highs, raising compliance costs for smaller refiners that rely on buying credits rather than blending fuel themselves.
The tightening outlook has intensified lobbying pressure in Washington. The nation’s largest refining trade group, the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers, has been meeting with lawmakers on Capitol Hill to push the administration to reconsider the 2026 biofuel mandates. It has also filed a lawsuit against the EPA.
"Americans will pay billions of dollars more than they should if the RFS isn’t right-sized," AFPM said in explanatory materials distributed to lawmakers that argued high credit costs raise pump prices for consumers.
The EPA said in an email that it evaluates compliance on a full-year basis and accounts for normal month-to-month fluctuations, including the use of existing credits to bridge temporary gaps.
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Brett Gibbs said the EPA could have underestimated the amount of biodiesel and renewable diesel exports and the constraints on importing feedstocks in the short term because of the Iran conflict.
"The EPA may very well have a problem on their hands by the midterms. Definitely into 2027," Gibbs said.
(Reporting by Siddharth Cavale in New York and Jarrett Renshaw in Washington; Editing by Christian Schmollinger and Matthew Lewis)
