By Wayne Cole
SYDNEY, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Share markets slid in Asia on Monday, dragged down by AI stocks, while supply concerns in the Middle East caused oil prices to spike anew, and investors braced for likely interest rate hikes in both the United States and Japan this week.
AI-linked shares took an added hit after the leaders of OpenAI and Anthropic called for a slowdown in development to manage risks and protect humanity.
On the oil front, Brent climbed almost 3% as new strikes on Saudi Arabia
and on ships in the Gulf strained nerves, after an attack on a Saudi oil pipeline and an advance by Yemen's Houthis threatened to worsen the wartime disruption to global energy supplies.
A meeting in Oman between Iran and Gulf Arab states, scheduled for Monday to discuss a deal on opening the Strait of Hormuz, was postponed.
With shipping through the strait and the Bab el-Mandeb under threat, analysts fear oil prices could stay elevated for a lengthy period, stoking inflation globally.
An uncomfortably hot U.S. consumer price report on Friday led markets to price in an 86% chance the Federal Reserve will lift rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, and move again by December. It would be the first hike since mid-2023.
"We now expect the Fed to hike twice this year, in September and December," said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan. "At this stage, failing to back up words with action could put the credibility of the institution at risk."
"Whether these actions represent a limited recalibration or mark the start of a more sustained hiking cycle will depend on incoming data," he added. "We anticipate the former scenario but see risks for the latter."
Brent futures were last up 2.5% at $107.18 a barrel, having gained almost 9% last week, while U.S. crude rose 2.6% to $102.62 a barrel. [O/R]
Japan's Nikkei fell 1.0%, while South Korea dropped 3.2% amid the talk of a slowdown for AI development.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slipped 1.1%, while Chinese blue chips eased 0.5%.
In Europe, EUROSTOXX 50 futures lost 0.4%, while DAX futures fell 0.2% and FTSE futures firmed 0.2%. On Wall Street, S&P 500 futures lost 0.5%, while Nasdaq futures fell 1.3%.
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Yields on 10-year Treasury notes were stuck at 4.973%, having been sold heavily in recent weeks. Just last week alone, 2-year yields rose a steep 26 basis points, while 10-year yields added 19 basis points as the curve flattened.
Ben Snider, chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, said strong corporate earnings should provide support for Wall Street if borrowing costs rise.
"Equities typically struggle when the Fed starts to hike rates, but we expect the bull market to continue," he added. "The S&P 500 has generated an average three-month return of -2% at the start of seven hiking cycles during the last few decades."
"Yet the S&P 500 has generated an average return of +9% during the 12 months following the first hike."
Markets also imply around a 76% chance the Bank of Japan will lift its cash rate by a quarter point, to 1.25%, when it meets on Friday. The BOJ is also expected to sound hawkish on further tightening as it struggles to prevent a relapse in the yen after market intervention helped to pull it from a 40-year low.
The dollar edged up to 153.98 yen, having fallen around 4% over the last two weeks and away from a July peak of 163.99. The euro was 0.2% lower at $1.1565, and testing support around $1.1560.
Sterling also eased to $1.3505 with the Bank of England expected to hold its rates at 3.75% on Thursday, though the decision could again be split.
In commodity markets, gold lost 0.4% to $4,329 an ounce, as higher bond yields diminished the lure of the non-interest-paying metal. [GOL/]
(Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Edmund Klamann and Sonali Paul)
