By Jamie McGeever
ORLANDO, Florida, April 7 (Reuters) - Wall Street recovered earlier losses to end mostly flat on Tuesday, as traders awaited the deadline later in the evening that U.S. President Donald Trump has given Iran to re-open the Strait of Hormuz and get oil and gas supplies flowing again.
In my column today, I look at how the global energy shock caused by the Iran war has turbocharged FX intervention risks across Asia, where economies face a triple-whammy doom loop of rising oil prices,
rising inflation, and a weakening currency.
If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today.
1. 'A whole civilisation will die tonight' says Trump asIran defies nearing deadline 2. It's time to end the world's delusions over the Iranenergy crisis: Russell 3. Deal, delay or strike? Investors on edge as Trump's Irandeadline nears 4. From falling U.S. wealth to Indian factory closures, oilshock raises global recession risk 5. Japan finance minister vows close G7 coordination asmarket volatility persistsToday's Key Market Moves
* STOCKS: Asia mostly rises, a sea of red across Europe,Wall Street little changed - Dow dips 0.2% but other mainindices all flat. * SECTORS/SHARES: Seven sectors on the S&P 500 rise, fivefall. Communications services +1%, consumer staples -1.8%.Paramount Skydance +11%, UnitedHealth +9%. Dutch-listedUniversal Music Group +11%. * FX: Dollar index -0.3%. Aussie among biggest gainers,+0.8% ahead of RBA decision; Korean won, Hungarian forint amongbiggest EM FX gainers. * BONDS: 10-year Japanese yield hits 2.43%, highest since1999. U.S. yields down 2-5 bps across the curve, 3-year auctiondraws strong demand, especially from foreign investors. * COMMODITIES/METALS: Oil mixed. WTI +0.5%, highest closesince 2022; Brent -0.5%. Gold +1%.Today's Talking Points
* Trump's Iran deadline
Global markets are on edge as Trump's deadline for Iran looms. Trump has given Iran until 8 p.m. ET (midnight GMT, 3.30 a.m. in Tehran) to end its blockade of Gulf oil. Iran has shown no sign of agreeing, and the WSJ has reported that Iran has cut off direct diplomacy with the U.S.
What if the deadline passes without Tehran bowing? Trump said on social media that "a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again," comments that former U.S. State Department legal advisor Brian Finucane said "could plausibly be interpreted as a threat to commit genocide" under U.S. and international law. The world is watching and waiting.
* Inflating expectations
Wherever you look, U.S. price pressures are rising. A New York Fed survey showed on Tuesday that one-year inflation expectations jumped to 3.4% in March from 3.0%. Also on Tuesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its 2026 average WTI oil forecast by 22% to $96/bbl, and gasoline outlook by 10.6% to $3.70/gallon.
This comes as the prices paid indexes in both the services and manufacturing ISM surveys hit their highest since 2022, and a Dallas Fed paper this week found that a prolonged oil shock could raise headline PCE inflation by up to 1.47 percentage points this year. Have markets priced for these scenarios?
* Bill of music rights
Billionaire investor Bill Ackman's Pershing Square has proposed a takeover of Universal Music Group in a $64 billion deal that puts a 78% premium on the Dutch-American group behind stars including Taylor Swift, Billie Eilish and Kendrick Lamar.
The question is why. Has he spotted a bargain? A deep value play? Is it to get Universal a U.S. listing? Is he taking not just a leaf but whole screeds out of Warren Buffett's playbook? Whatever the motivations, analysts reckon he still has work to do to seal the deal. A 78% premium may not be enough.
What could move markets tomorrow?
* Developments in the Middle East * Energy market moves * Social media posts from Trump * Australia interest rate decision * Japan trade, current account (February) * India interest rate decision * Germany industrial orders, manufacturing (February) * Euro zone producer price inflation (February) * Euro zone retail sales (February) * U.S. Treasury sells $39 billion of 10-year notes atauction * U.S. Federal Reserve releases minutes from March 17-18meeting * U.S. Federal Reserve officials scheduled to speak includeSan Francisco Fed President Mary DalyWant to receive Trading Day in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for my newsletter here.
Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
(Reporting by Jamie McGeever; Editing by Nia Williams)
