By Jeslyn Lerh
SINGAPORE, March 6 (Reuters) - Fuel oil traders in Asia are struggling to secure alternative supply as the Iran war curtails shipments from key Middle Eastern suppliers through the Strait of Hormuz, prompting them to look to the West for replacement cargoes.
The shortage of Middle Eastern fuel oil volumes is set to dent the supply of bunker fuel for powering ships, with prices at key bunker ports such as Singapore set for further hikes in coming weeks, raising refuelling costs for vessel
owners. Those higher costs will translate into increased prices for companies transporting goods.
Expectations for a growing shortage sparked a sharp rally in fuel oil markets this week, especially for high-sulphur fuel oil which typically comes from the Middle East.
Volumes of fuel oil exports transiting the Strait of Hormuz and bound for Asia typically average 1.2 million metric tons per month, or about 246,000 barrels per day, Kpler data showed, with about 70% ending up in Southeast Asia.
Overall fuel oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz usually total about 3.7 million tons per month, the data showed.
Tanker transits are now about 90% lower than last week, Kpler's analysis of vessel activity showed.
"When such a large share of the global high-sulphur complex depends on a single chokepoint, even partial transit disruption can tighten balances quickly and amplify bunker volatility," said Sumit Ritolia, lead analyst for refining and supply modelling at Kpler.
WESTERN SUPPLY CHALLENGES
Prices for high-sulphur bunker fuel delivered in Singapore, the world's largest ship refuelling hub, have risen more than 40% since the start of the war, while prices for delivered low-sulphur fuel oil have climbed more than 30%.
Some high-sulphur supply could come from Western refineries, though sky-high tanker rates make trading economics extremely challenging, fuel oil traders said.
"Everyone is struggling to find oil for the second half of March. Tankers are too expensive and arbitrage to Singapore is closed," a trader based in Singapore said.
Possible supply sources include the United States and Mexico, traders said, but volumes are insufficient. Another possible source is Venezuela, but these cargoes have remained in the West so far this year.
"Obviously there is also Russia but these barrels remain sensitive for some buyers," another trader said. Russian fuel remains under sanction because of the war in Ukraine.
Iranian fuel oil is also under long-standing sanctions but China continues to purchase it. However, those shipments have also halted because of the conflict.
Any pullback in Iranian HSFO supply would prompt China's independent asphalt producers to pull more straight-run fuel oil from Russia, limiting availability in the Singapore Strait, said consultancy FGE NexantECA.
Others are looking towards regional Asian refiners but volumes are set to decline as they cut production amid a crude oil shortage caused by the Middle East war.
In the low-sulphur market, price hikes were less steep as some supply still comes from Brazil and Nigeria, though cargoes from Kuwait's al-Zour refinery are shut in the Gulf.
Costs of future replenishment are expected to jump due to wider tightness in the market, said traders.
While the market is coping with an existing large build in onshore inventories in Singapore as well as volumes stored on ships, stockpiles are set to draw sharply in the coming weeks, traders said.
(Reporting by Jeslyn Lerh; Editing by Tony Munroe and Christian Schmollinger)
