April 8 (Reuters) - Market analysts are split over whether Universal Music Group's top stakeholders will support billionaire Bill Ackman's Pershing Square proposed $64 billion takeover of the music label.
For analysts, French tycoon Vincent Bolloré's next move is critical and uncertain. Along with Vivendi, also controlled by the Bolloré family, analysts were split over whether the leading shareholders would welcome the touted value creation from a U.S. listing or if they would prefer to retain more
control of the company. Neither party, which together hold close to 32% of UMG's shares, has commented on the proposal yet.
UMG said on Wednesday that its board would review the proposal and analyse its "implications" for stakeholders, without providing further comments. The cash-and-shares offer, which Pershing Square values at around 30.40 euros per share, is higher than the stock's all-time high of 29.49 euros from May 2024.
WHAT THE ANALYSTS SAY:
* J.P. Morgan does not expect the duo of Bolloré and Vivendito support the deal, saying "there is nothing in proposal thatUMG could not do itself" and that Bolloré may want to realiseopportunities to seize value on its own schedule. * AlphaValue analysts said on Vivendi and Bolloré that theU.S. listing "disguised as a merger" could provide a welcomecash injection for both groups, should they accept the offer. * Morningstar did not make a prediction on whether theshareholders would back the deal but said the merger could helpunlock some value in UMG, which it views as "grosslyundervalued". It added that apart from Bolloré, Vivendi, Tencentand Pershing Square itself, the rest of shareholders would have"little to say in the outcome". * Deutsche Bank analysts also gave no forecast on whetherthe deal would get Bollore's backing, though they said the offerwas "opportunistic and timely" considering UMG'sunderperformance against the wider market, as shown by itsyear-to-date decline of around 14% as of Tuesday. * ING analysts said that while they noticed "a bit ofwishful thinking" on "toppish" valuation scenarios, the Pershingproposal raised many valid points on shortcoming troubling UMG.On Tuesday, the analysts said the deal "might well fail".(Reporting by Mateusz Rabiega and Leo Marchandon in Gdansk, editing by Milla Nissi-Prussak and Anousha Sakoui)
