(Reuters) -Morgan Stanley said on Friday that gold prices had potential to climb to $4,500 per ounce by mid-2026, citing strong physical demand by exchange-traded funds and central banks as the economic outlook remains uncertain.
"Recent price action took gold well into 'overbought' territory on an RSI (Relative Strength Index) basis, but the recent correction has taken it to a healthier level, likely cleaning up positioning," Morgan Stanley said in a note.
The bank expects continued buying of gold-backed
exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as interest rates decline, alongside steady purchases by central banks, albeit at a slower pace and stabilization in jewelry demand.
However, Morgan Stanley cautioned that downside risks remain, including potential price volatility that could prompt investors to shift toward other asset classes or decisions by central banks to reduce gold reserves.
Gold prices have surged over 54% year-to-date, hitting multiple record highs in 2025, including the latest peak of $4,381.21 per ounce on October 20, but have retreated more than 8% since then.
The rally in gold this year has been fueled by geopolitical uncertainty, expectations of rate cuts, central bank purchases, and strong gold-backed ETF inflows.
Following is a list of analysts' latest forecasts for 2025 and 2026 gold prices (in $ per ounce):
Brokerage/ Annual Price Forecasts Price Forecas
Agency Targets t as of
2025 2026
Morgan $3,398 $4,400 $4,500 by October
Stanley mid 2026 31
Citi $3,400 $3,250 Lowers 0-3 October
Research month price 28,
target to 2025
$3,800
JP Morgan $3,468 $4,753 Expects October
prices 23,
reaching an 2025
average of
$5,055/oz by
4Q26
HSBC $3,455 $4,600 $4,600 per October
ounce by 17,
year-end 2025
2025
ANZ $3,494 $4,445 $4,400 by October
year-end and 16,
$4,600 by 2025
June 2026
Bank of $3,352 $4,438 2026 gold October
America outlook 13,
raised to 2025
$5,000
Societe $3,455 $4,716 $5,000 by October
Generale the end of 13,
2026 2025
Standard $3,402 $4,488 - October
Chartered 13,
2025
Goldman $3,400 $4,525 $4,900 by October
Sachs December 7, 2025
2026
Commerzban $4,000 - $4,200 by October
k* the end of 7, 2025
next year
Deutsche $3,291 $4,000 $4,300 by Septemb
Bank Q4-2026 er 17,
2025
UBS $3,320 $3,825 Decline in October
real rates, 16,
potentially 2025
into
negative
territory,
could push
gold towards
$4,700
*end-of-period forecasts
(Reporting by Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise)
