(Reuters) -JP Morgan on Thursday forecast gold prices reaching an average of $5,055 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026, citing expectations of sustained investor interest and steady central bank buying."We believe [gold] has even higher to go as we enter a Fed cutting cycle with overlays of stagflation anxiety, concerns around Fed independence, and broader debasement hedging," the bank said in its note.
JP Morgan analysts suggest that foreign holders of U.S. assets are diversifying slightly from
U.S. dollars into gold.
Natasha Kaneva, JP Morgan's Head of Global Commodities Strategy, said that while U.S. assets remain "core to their portfolios," companies are finding value in modestly reducing allocations.
JP Morgan estimates that a shift reducing U.S. exposure from approximately 45% to 43%, with half a percentage point redirected into gold, could drive the gold price to $6,000.
Gold prices have surged nearly 57% year-to-date, driven by geopolitical and economic uncertainty, rate-cut expectations, and sustained central bank buying. The precious metal hit multiple record highs, with the latest on Monday at $4,381.21 per ounce. [GOL/]
Following is a list of analysts' latest forecasts for 2025 and 2026 gold prices (in $ per ounce):
Brokerage/ Annual Price Forecasts Price Foreca
Agency Targets st as
of
2025 2026
JP Morgan $3,468 $4,753 Octobe
Expects r 23,
prices 2025
reaching an
average of
$5,055/oz
by 4Q26
HSBC $3,455 $4,600 Octobe
$4,600 per r 17,
ounce by 2025
year-end
2025
ANZ $3,494 $4,445 $4,400 by Octobe
year-end r 16,
and $4,600 2025
by June
2026
Bank of $3,352 $4,438 2026 gold Octobe
America outlook r 13,
raised to 2025
$5,000
Societe - - $5,000 by Octobe
Generale the end of r 13,
2026 2025
Standard - $4,488 Octobe
Chartered r 13,
2025
Goldman $3,400 $4,525 $4,900 by Octobe
Sachs December r 7,
2026 2025
Commerzban $4,000 - $4,200 by Octobe
k* the end of r 7,
next year 2025
Deutsche $3,291 $4,000 $4,300 by Septem
Bank Q4-2026 ber
17,
2025
UBS - - Decline in Octobe
real rates, r 16,
potentially 2025
into
negative
territory,
could push
gold
towards
$4,700
Citi $3,400 $3,250 - Septem
Research ber
29,
2025
*end-of-period forecasts
(Reporting by Pablo Sinha in Bengaluru; Editing by Toby Chopra)
