April 9 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs trimmed its second‑quarter 2026 forecasts for Brent and U.S. crude to $90 and $87 a barrel, respectively, after the U.S. and Iran agreed on a two-week ceasefire.
Previously, the bank forecast Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices to average $99 and $91 a barrel, respectively.
Brent crude oil prices are down over 11% so far this week amid hopes that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen after U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran.
However, prices rose on Thursday on concerns that supply from the key Middle East producing region may not fully resume amid doubts about the ceasefire holding and as the crucial strait remains restricted. [O/R]
Meanwhile, ANZ in a note said that oil supply disruptions have materially tightened the global crude balance, shifting the market rapidly from early‑year surplus to a sizeable deficit.
"We see a credible risk that 1–2 mb/d (million barrel per day) of capacity may be permanently lost or limited, particularly from mature fields, constrained export systems and producers facing persistent sanctions or financing challenges," the bank said.
ANZ said the market is likely to require sustained prices above $100/bbl to ration demand and prompt stock drawdowns, if recovery stalls at this week's level, leaving deficits above 4–5 mb/d.
Brokerage/ Brent WTI Forecasts Price
Agency as of Targets
2026 2027 2026 202
7
$83 $80 $78 $75 April 9, Trims 2Q
Goldman ($85 ($79 2026 2026
Sachs previo previ Brent, WTI
usly) ously forecast
) to $90/$87
ANZ $92 %76 $88 $76 April 9,
2026
Macquarie $89.28 $74.50 $82.9 $70 March 27 If the war
3 .50 continues
until end
of June,
oil prices
may rise
to $200
Morgan - $80 - - March 24, Expects
Stanley ($70 2026 Brent
previo prices to
usly) remain
above
$80/bbl
for the
rest of
2026
J.P Morgan - $72 - - March 20, Expects
2026 Brent
prices
averaging
$100/bbl
in Q2'26,
$90/bbl in
Q3'26 and
$80/bbl in
Q4'26
Standard $85.50 Expects
Chartered ($70 Brent to
previo average
usly) $78/bbl in
Q1'26, and
$98/bbl in
Q2'26
BofA $77.50 $66 - $61 March 16, Expects
($61 ($62 ($5 2026 Brent to
previo previo 9 average
usly) usly) pre $80/bbl in
vio Q2'26, but
usl average
y) $76/bbl in
Q3'26
Barclays $85 - - - March 13, But if the
(from 2026 Strait of
$65 Hormuz
previo takes 4-6
usly) weeks to
The normalise,
foreca says Brent
st could
assume climb to
s the $100/bbl
Strait
of
Hormuz
normal
ises
in 2-3
weeks
BMI $70 $70 $68 $68 March 12, Expects
($67 2026 Brent to
previo average
usly) $67/bbl
and
$69/bbl in
Q3’26 and
Q4'26,
respective
ly.
Citi $71 $64 $68($ $61 March 11, Anticipate
($63 60 2026 s Brent
previo previ averaging
usly) ously $75/bbl in
) Q1'26,
$78/bbl in
Q2'26, and
$68/bbl in
Q3’26
HSBC $80 $70($6 $76($ $67 March 10,
($65 6 61 ($6 2026
previo previo previ 3
usly) usly) ously pre
) vio
usl
y)
- - - - March 6, Expects
2026 crude
prices
could rise
to
$150/bbl
or above
if the
Strait of
Hormuz
remains
closed for
several
weeks
UBS $72 $70 $68($ $66 March 4, Expects
($62 58 2026 prices
previo previ to move
usly) ously towards
) >$100/bbl
and into
more
severe
demand
destructio
n of the
territory
of
$120+/bbl
if flows
through
Hormuz
remain
disrupted
(Reporting by Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru, editing by Deepa Babington and Lincoln Feast)
