BEIJING, June 8 (Reuters) - China's car sales extended a downturn in May that has become a stress test for foreign automakers led by Volkswagen, which is trying to revive its China business through locally developed electric vehicles.
Sales dropped 22.3% from a year earlier to 1.53 million vehicles last month, marking an eighth consecutive month of decline, data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) showed on Monday.
Full-year car sales were forecast to fall 11%, down dramatically from the
estimated 1% decline previously, according to the association.
The downturn mainly reflects a hit to gasoline car sales due to oil price hikes linked to the Middle East crisis, said Cui Dongshu, the CPCA's secretary-general, who predicts a gradual recovery in the second half to ease the year-to-date slide.
For the first five months, sales were down 19.7% to 7.18 million vehicles.
The prolonged slump has underscored a widening gap between China's headline economic growth and consumer demand for big-ticket items like cars. While Beijing is targeting economic growth of 4.5% to 5% this year, analysts say auto demand has been hit by weaker consumer confidence, reduced subsidies and a market that is mature after years of rapid expansion.
EV and plug-in hybrid sales, making up 62.2% of the total, fell 7.5% from a year earlier last month, the fifth straight month of declines.
"China's auto market is already the largest in the world at 23 million to 25 million retail sales annually and car ownership levels are relatively high, especially for an emerging market," said Eugene Hsiao, head of China equity strategy at Macquarie Capital. "This means the market is already at a mature stage of development."
Hsiao said he expected China's total retail auto market to grow at single-digit levels over the next five to 10 years, although leading EV makers could continue to outpace the broader market as penetration rises.
Last month, NIO Chief Executive William Li said China's auto industry had likely moved past its "golden era" as domestic demand stagnates even though exports remain strong.
While NIO is still focused on its home market, many of its peers have pivoted to exports.
EV and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle sales abroad rose 112.6% in May from a year earlier, compared with a 74.7% increase in overall car exports.
VOLKSWAGEN AS A TEST CASE
The domestic downturn is hitting global automakers at a critical moment, especially Volkswagen, which is trying to defend its historic position as a leader in China through a faster and more localised EV strategy.
Volkswagen has leaned more heavily on Chinese partners and suppliers, including a high-profile collaboration with Xpeng, as it seeks to close the technology gap with domestic EV brands in smart cabins, advanced driver assistance and software-defined vehicle architecture.
But the early rollout of the first Volkswagen-Xpeng model also highlights a distribution challenge facing foreign automakers as they try to build EV businesses alongside older joint ventures and combustion-engine sales networks, analysts said.
Bill Russo, CEO of Shanghai-based advisory firm Automobility, said separating EV retail operations from legacy dealer networks could be strategically logical but also creates execution risks around brand consistency, customer acquisition, aftersales support and retail scale.
"Traditional OEMs attempting to build parallel EV sales structures often face organizational fragmentation and slower market responsiveness," Russo said.
(Reporting by Ju-min Park and Qiaoyi Li; Editing by Louise Heavens, Thomas Derpinghaus and Kevin Buckland)
