May 12 (Reuters) - HSBC raised its 2026 average Brent price forecast to $95 a barrel last week, citing a longer effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
"Our base case now assumes that Hormuz traffic and Gulf output gradually restart from mid‑June, and a return to near‑normal system-level production and flows by end‑3Q26," HSBC said in a note dated May 6.
It added that a longer disruption implies larger inventory drawdowns, a more challenging post‑war refill, and a higher residual risk premium, supporting
a higher long‑term price anchor.
In HSBC's scenario-based assumptions, the bank sees Brent averaging around $110 a barrel in 2026 and $85 a barrel in 2027 if a deal is only reached towards late summer but oil prices periodically correct on headlines.
The bank said that in a "pessimistic" scenario where a comprehensive deal takes around six months, leaving flows heavily constrained, Brent would average $120 per barrel in 2026 and $95 per barrel in 2027.
Oil prices rose by more than 3% on Tuesday as stark differences between the U.S. and Iran on a proposal to end the war in the Middle East pushed supply concerns back into the spotlight. [O/R]
Brokerage/ Brent WTI Forecasts Price
Agency as of Targets
2026 2027 2026 202
7
Goldman $90 ($83 $85 $83 $80 April 26, Raises 4Q
Sachs previousl ($80 ($78 ($7 2026 2026
y) previo previ 5 Brent, WTI
usly) ously pre forecast
) vio to $90/$83
usl
y)
Citi $91 $75 $83 $70 April 26, Raises
2026 Brent
price
forecast
to
$110/bbl
in Q2'26,
$95/bbl in
Q3'26 and
$80/bbl in
Q4'26
ANZ $92 $76 $88 $76 April 9,
2026
UBS - - - - April 13, Expects
2026 prices
to trade
>$150/bbl
if flows
through
Hormuz
remain
disrupted.
Sees Brent
at
$100/bbl
by
end-June
2026, $95
by
end-Sept,
$90 by
end-Dec
Macquarie $89.28 $74.50 $82.9 $70 March 27 If the war
3 .50 continues
until end
of June,
oil prices
may rise
to $200
Morgan - $80 - - March 24, Expects
Stanley ($70 2026 Brent
previo prices to
usly) remain
above
$80/bbl
for the
rest of
2026
J.P. - $72 - - March 20, Expects
Morgan 2026 Brent
prices
averaging
$100/bbl
in Q2'26,
$90/bbl in
Q3'26 and
$80/bbl in
Q4'26
Standard $85.50 Expects
Chartered ($70 Brent to
previousl average
y) $78/bbl in
Q1'26, and
$98/bbl in
Q2'26
BofA $77.50 $66 - $61 March 16, Expects
($61 ($62 ($5 2026 Brent to
previousl previo 9 average
y) usly) pre $80/bbl in
vio Q2'26, but
usl average
y) $76/bbl in
Q3'26
Barclays $100 - - - May 1 If the
(from $85 current
previousl situation
y) continues
through
the end of
May,
forward-im
plied 2026
Brent
should
reprice to
$110/b
BMI $70 ($67 $70 $68 $68 March 12, Expects
previousl 2026 Brent to
y) average
$67/bbl
and
$69/bbl in
Q3’26 and
Q4'26,
respective
ly.
HSBC $95 ($80 $75 - - May 06,
previousl ($70 2026
y) previo
usly)
(Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Joe Bavier)
