By Tim Hepher
PARIS (Reuters) -Airbus needs to deliver planes at a record pace to reach its annual target after delivering about 60 aircraft in August, industry sources and analysts said on Monday.
The world's largest planemaker is aiming for a 7% increase in deliveries to 820 jets this year, but has been hit by delays in receiving engines and cabin equipment. Deliveries are the company's main near-term industrial target and determine revenue and cash generation, as well as affect airline growth plans.
If confirmed, a tally of about 60 aircraft in August would mark a sharp increase from the same month in 2024 but still leave cumulative 2025 deliveries about 3% behind the same point last year, at about 433 jets, analysts said.
Airbus declined to comment ahead of the publication of monthly data early on Friday.
In July, the planemaker reaffirmed its annual target of "around 820" deliveries, up from 766 in 2024.
Airbus has been in a tug of war with engine maker CFM as airlines clamour for spare engines in competition with assembly lines for new aircraft. It said in July that it also faced engine delays from Pratt & Whitney.
SEPTEMBER 'TEST'
Airbus has been producing aircraft without engines in anticipation of a surge of engine arrivals in the second half of the year and reported 60 of what are called "gliders" in the system when posting mid-year results.
It has said that once engines arrive, it needs one to two months to convert a semi-complete airframe into an airliner ready for delivery. That will put pressure on Airbus to whittle down a significant part of the deficit in the third quarter.
"I still feel it's doable ... but September is going to be the real test," Jefferies analyst Chloe Lemarie said.
Veteran industry watcher Rob Morris, ex-head of consultancy at Cirium Ascend, warned Airbus would have to outdo even the record performance seen before the pandemic, which inflicted damage on suppliers that has yet to be fully repaired.
Based on Cirium's estimate of 58 deliveries in August, he said Airbus would need to deliver an average of 97 aircraft a month between September and December to hit its full-year goal.
That would need to be 5% better than the previous highest average for that period of 92 aircraft in 2018 or 91 in 2019.
Using statistical methods based on past performance, there is a 5% chance that Airbus will get to 810 deliveries this year, Morris said.
"My own personal view is that they will achieve around 790-800," he added.
Airbus deliveries were briefly eclipsed by Boeing during a slow start to the year, but the European company is on course to remain the world's largest planemaker this year as its rival's activity recovers gradually from internal crises.
(Reporting by Tim HepherEditing by David Goodman, Rod Nickel)
