BERLIN (Reuters) -BMW shares were seen down 3% in pre-market indications on Wednesday after the German carmaker cut its 2025 earnings forecast due to changed U.S. tariff assumptions and weaker-than-expected growth in the Chinese market.
The company narrowed its profit forecast to 5-6% in its cars business from the 5-7% range it had previously predicted, while pre-tax earnings are now likely to decline slightly this year.
Citing delays to refunds from U.S. customs, BMW also halved expectations for the
automotive segment's free cash flow to above 2.5 billion euros ($2.9 billion).
The carmaker, which still assumes the EU will retroactively implement a tariff reduction to zero, now expects a three-digit million figure in reimbursements next year, it said.
Like its European peers, BMW has suffered setbacks in China due to aggressive local competition and a real-estate downturn.
While BMW recorded sales growth in Europe and America through the end of September, the targeted sales increase in China remained below expectations, the company said.
"We believe that, more important than the impact of tariffs, will be the firm's ability to stabilise the volume momentum and pricing power in China in FY26, which will ultimately ensure the longer term competitiveness of the group," wrote JPMorgan analysts.
Local rival Mercedes, which on Tuesday reported declining sales as U.S. import duties and intensifying competition in China dented its sales, saw shares down 2.7% in early Frankfurt trade on Wednesday.
($1 = 0.8610 euros)
(Reporting by Miranda Murray, editing by Thomas Seythal)
