By Deborah Mary Sophia and Arpan Varghese
(Reuters) -Global companies have flagged more than $35 billion in costs from U.S. tariffs heading into third-quarter earnings, but many are lowering their initial forecasts as new trade deals reduce exposure to President Donald Trump's levies.
Trump's trade war has hiked U.S. tariffs to their highest levels since the 1930s, and the president has regularly threatened more duties, but overall, the fog that paralyzed many businesses is clearing, allowing executives
to forecast costs and make plans - including some price hikes.
Companies expected a combined financial hit of $21.0 billion to $22.9 billion for 2025, with an impact of nearly $15 billion calculated for 2026, according to a Reuters analysis of hundreds of corporate statements, regulatory filings and earnings calls between July 16 and September 30.
The total of more than $35 billion compares with $34 billion tallied in May, shortly after Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs in April rattled global supply chains. But the trajectory masks a shift: the increase is largely due to Toyota's $9.5 billion estimate. Many other companies have lowered their earlier worst-case forecasts after Trump reached lower-rate trade deals with the EU and Japan. The figures combine annual and partial-year estimates from an overlapping group of firms. Both groups include about 60 firms.
French spirits makers Remy Cointreau and Pernod Ricard both lowered estimates of tariff pain after the EU deal, while Sony in August cut its forecast. Trump also carved out exceptions, with only about a third of Brazil's exports facing a 50% tariff, for instance.
“Tariffs are getting clearer and clearer. And we believe that tariffs will be just another variable of our business equation that we need to be ready to manage, and we will,” Stellantis CEO Antonio Filosa told Reuters in a mid-October interview, introducing new details of a $13 billion, four-year investment in U.S. manufacturing. Stellantis in July warned of a 1.5 billion-euro hit from U.S. tariffs this year.
"I think there is this sense that we reached a kind of landing point with some of the bilateral trade deals," said International Chamber of Commerce Deputy Secretary General Andrew Wilson.
"But there will continue to be much greater complexity and this massive uncertainty."
Case in point: Trump earlier this month floated the idea of additional 100% tariffs on China. On Friday, he said the proposed tariffs would not be sustainable, and blamed Beijing for the latest tensions in trade talks between the two countries.
CONSUMER AND MANUFACTURING HIT HARDEST
S&P 500 companies are projected to show an earnings growth rate of 9.3% in the July-September period, a decline from 13.8% in the second quarter, according to LSEG data. Much of that is on the back of the U.S. IT sector, driven by AI investment. Europe's Stoxx 600 is expected to clock 0.5% growth, down from 4% in the previous quarter.
The pain is concentrated on companies that depend on countries that do not have trade deals.
Nike, heavily dependent on suppliers in Vietnam and other Asian countries, raised its tariff impact estimate late last month to $1.5 billion from $1 billion. In Europe, Tefal kitchen-ware maker SEB recently cut its profit outlook, citing weaker demand as customers adopted a wait-and-see attitude partly due to tariffs, while H&M cautioned that U.S. tariffs on imports would weigh more heavily on margins in the quarter through November.
"We are cautious about the U.S. heading into the fourth quarter, both connected to the impact of tariffs on the gross margin but equally also the consumer sentiment," H&M CEO Daniel Erver told Reuters. "We can see the price increases."
Price increases are the most frequent effect of tariffs cited by companies in the Reuters tracker.
Carmakers including Ford, Stellantis, Volkswagen and Toyota collectively have reported billions in tariff-related costs. Ford, for instance, is expecting a cumulative $3 billion impact.
Still, optimism has ticked up among automakers and auto parts suppliers as Trump has moved toward significant tariff relief for U.S. auto production that could effectively eliminate many of the costs that have hit top car companies.
Drug makers also have started rolling out deals on drug pricing and manufacturing that are tied to U.S. tariff exemptions. Pfizer and AstraZeneca have led the way, and others are expected to follow.
(Reporting by Deborah Sophia, Arpan Varghese in Bengaluru and the tariff tracking teams in Bengaluru and Gdansk; Additional reporting by Josephine Mason in London, Nora Eckert in Detroit and David Gaffen in New York;Editing by Peter Henderson and Matthew Lewis)
