By Laura Matthews
NEW YORK, Aug 21 (Reuters) - Nvidia's earnings report and the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole symposium will test the assumptions behind this year's stock market rally, offering clues on whether the AI-driven surge in equities can withstand rising uncertainty over growth and interest rates.
Global bond yields surged this week, sending the 30-year Treasury yield to its highest level since 2007, pressuring stocks and raising concerns about borrowing costs for households and companies
investing heavily in AI infrastructure.
The Treasury Department's efforts to calm markets by doubling buybacks for long-dated debt offered only brief relief, with yields rebounding on Thursday, sharpening focus on the August 27 to August 29 event in Jackson Hole to see how Fed Chair Kevin Warsh communicates policy in an environment where guidance has been dropped.
"All eyes are going to be pointed towards Jackson Hole ... because there's still not a whole lot of clarity. You see that with the bond market today," said David Wagner, head of equities at Aptus Capital Advisors.
The S&P 500 is down this week and about 2% below its record high, as rising Treasury yields fuel worries about borrowing costs, weighing on semiconductor stocks and dragging the Philadelphia chips index down some 5% for the week.
NVIDIA REPORTS AMID MARKET JITTERS
Nvidia, whose chips underpin much of the AI infrastructure buildout, reports second-quarter results on August 26. The company has become a proxy for the broader AI ecosystem spanning chip makers and companies financing the rapid expansion of data center capacity. Its results could offer new insight into the demand underpinning that sector.
"The market is so reliant on the AI trade today, and Nvidia is obviously the big boy in the room," said Erik Kratz, chief investment officer at Arena Private Wealth. "It's got implications across everything. We've had so many deals from Nvidia and financing (tied to) this buildout."
Nvidia recently teamed up with six major financial institutions on financing platforms targeting more than $500 billion for AI infrastructure, highlighting the massive capital required as companies and governments race to build data centers for AI workloads.
WARSH'S JACKSON HOLE DEBUT
At the same time, investors will be looking to Jackson Hole for clues about the policy environment in which that expansion will take place. It will be Warsh's first Jackson Hole appearance since taking office in May 2026.
With Warsh stepping back from traditional forward guidance, investors see the event as another opportunity for him to show eager markets how he intends to approach monetary policy and articulate the framework that will define his long-term strategy.
He rattled markets after the July meeting provided few hints about how policymakers might respond if inflation remains stubbornly elevated.
"The tape risk is real here," said Will Sterling, chief investment officer at TritonPoint Wealth. "My base case is he's going to be reinforcing his data-dependent framework and saying, 'watch the numbers'. I think he's OK with the market should figure it out a little bit."
With July's personal consumption expenditures — the Fed's preferred inflation measure — and a report on U.S. economic growth coming before the symposium, investors will get an updated picture of inflation and economic momentum that could reshape expectations for interest rates.
Markets are now pricing in a 35% chance of a September rate hike, with the odds rising to 66% by December.
U.S. Treasury yields rebounded on Thursday, undoing much of the previous day's decline despite the Treasury Department's efforts to bolster liquidity in long-dated notes and bonds.
Aptus' Wagner said Warsh's move away from forward guidance could prove beneficial over time by discouraging investors from treating Fed signals as promises, even if it results in greater market volatility as traders make their own reassessments on the outlook for rates.
"Everyone's way afraid that the Fed's reputation is now tarnished because of Warsh," he said. "I think the Fed's as independent as it has ever been because you had those three dissents ... on what rates should be done. That's a reason to be optimistic about the Fed moving forward. That could spook markets or give them conviction."
(Reporting by Laura Matthews in New York; Editing by Matthew Lewis)
