April 2 (Reuters) - Eli Lilly's newly approved weight-loss pill is expected to generate billions in sales as soon as this year, with analysts betting it will quickly narrow Novo Nordisk's head start in the oral market.
Brokerages estimate 2026 sales of $1.5 billion to $2.8 billion of Lilly's orforglipron, branded Foundayo, with the wide range reflecting both an expectation of strong demand and uncertainty around the early stages of the launch.
Among the more bullish forecasts on Wall Street is Bernstein,
which estimates the drug could generate $2 billion to $2.5 billion in its first full year. Citi analysts are even more upbeat, projecting about $2.8 billion in 2026 revenue and seeing peak annual sales exceeding $40 billion.
More conservative estimates include those from Guggenheim Partners, which projects around $1.5 billion for 2026.
But, even at the lower end, the pill is expected to reshape the competitive landscape.
UBS estimates that Lilly's drug and Novo's oral version of Wegovy together will generate about $5 billion in 2026, signaling the emergence of a sizable new oral class.
Foundayo comes with easier manufacturing and fewer dosing restrictions, positioning it as a strong challenger to Novo.
Strong demand for oral options and scalability advantages could help Foundayo become the leading pill option, especially internationally, J.P. Morgan analysts said, forecasting sales to surge to $6 billion by 2027.
However, early uptake may be tempered by launch dynamics.
Bernstein analysts noted that free sampling, lower initial dosing and pricing adjustments could weigh on near-term revenue even as prescription volumes ramp up. Weekly new-patient starts will be closely watched by the market as a key indicator of trajectory, they added.
The launch also comes as Novo's oral Wegovy benefits from first-mover advantage and brand recognition, helping it capture early adopters in the market.
In the long term, analysts see oral drugs expanding the reach of obesity treatments. Morningstar estimates obesity pills could account for about a third of a projected $180 billion global market by 2034.
(Reporting by Mrinalika Roy, Sriparna Roy, Mariam Sunny in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel)
