By Ella Cao, Tom Polansek, Daphne Zhang and Lewis Jackson
BEIJING/CHICAGO, May 8 (Reuters) - U.S. beef producers are hoping for a trade deal during the upcoming leaders' summit that could renew licenses to export to China, where they have been largely locked out since Beijing allowed registrations to expire last year.
A casualty of the trade war between Beijing and Washington, U.S. beef exports to China peaked at $1.7 billion in 2022.
More than 400 U.S. beef plants have lost export eligibility over
the past year as permissions that Beijing granted between March 2020 and April 2021 lapsed, according to Chinese customs data, accounting for roughly 65% of the once-registered plants. Access for another three is set to expire in June, the U.S. Meat Export Federation said.
China has not explained why it allowed the registrations to lapse in violation of the Phase One trade agreement it signed with Washington in 2020, said Joe Schuele, spokesperson for the trade association.
Producers and processors hope the May 14-15 summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping provides the opportunity for license renewals.
White House staff in recent weeks assured the United States Cattlemen's Association, which represents producers, that the issue will be discussed at the summit, said Justin Tupper, the association's president.
"We asked them to make sure that it would be part of the discussion, and the answer was: It will," said Tupper, a South Dakota cattle producer. "We're pushing to make it a big part of the discussion."
The White House referred questions to the Department of Agriculture, which did not respond to a request for comment.
China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs also did not respond to requests for comment.
TIME FOR A DEAL?
U.S. beef prices have set records because of dwindling cattle supplies, reducing the country's exports and boosting imports.
Still, the timing may favour renewed access to China, particularly as Australia is on track to reach its safeguard threshold in mid-2026, Schuele said.
China introduced a beef import quota system last December, with a 55% tariff on imports above quota for major suppliers like the U.S. and Australia to protect its domestic industry.
Australia surpassed 50% of its beef quota in the first quarter, according to customs data.
DOUBTS REMAIN
Still, Chinese industry players said it was unlikely that restored access would translate to a boom in imports, as U.S. beef faces a 10% higher tariff than Australian meat and competition from domestic producers moving up the value chain.
"This is a bargaining chip for China, because the U.S. wants China to open up, but China does not lack beef," said a director at a Beijing-based company that helps international beef firms with market access.
Another executive at a beef importing and breeding company said a license renewal would be "purely a political gesture." Executives in China requested anonymity given the sensitivity of the matter.
The government is encouraging local producers to develop China's own high-end cattle instead of relying on the U.S. or Australia, said the import executive.
(Reporting by Ella Cao, Daphne Zhang and Lewis Jackson in Beijing, and Tom Polansek in Chicago; Editing by Sonali Paul)
