By Patrick Wingrove and Sriparna Roy
Oct 29 (Reuters) - Eli Lilly raised its full-year revenue forecast and beat third-quarter profit estimates on Thursday, as booming demand for its injectable weight-loss drugs offset a weaker-than-expected launch of its obesity pill, Foundayo.
The Indianapolis-based drugmaker now expects full-year revenue of $91 billion to $92 billion, underscoring its expanding lead in the multibillion-dollar GLP-1 market over Danish rival Novo Nordisk that has propelled Lilly to a $1.2
trillion market valuation. Lilly had previously forecast revenue of $85.0 billion to $87.0 billion.
Lilly shares were up 8% in early trading at $1,389.71 after briefly hitting a record high of $1,408.
RBC analyst Trung Huynh said many investors were already heavily invested in Lilly with some uneasy about falling prices and sky-high expectations. The $5.5 billion increase to the company's revenue forecast was more than enough to meet those expectations, and it should ease pricing concerns for the time being, he said.
The company trimmed its 2026 adjusted profit outlook, however, to $35.00 to $36.00 per share, from $35.50 to $36.50 previously, due to large charges taken in the quarter primarily related to the acquisitions of AtaiBeckley and Curevo, Lilly said.
Greg Halter, director of research at Carnegie Investment Counsel, which owns over 16,000 Eli Lilly shares, shrugged off the 50-cent profit forecast reduction. "They're spending money so that they can make money down the road," he said.
FOUNDAYO LAGS
Lilly's newer obesity pill Foundayo brought in $184 million, falling short of estimates of $216.86 million.
Investors are closely tracking the Foundayo rollout as a key test of whether Lilly can blunt Novo's first-mover edge with its oral Wegovy.
Eli Lilly Chief Financial Officer Lucas Montarce said the shortfall in Foundayo's third-quarter sales reflects stocking in the launch quarter, not weak demand. In an interview, Montarce explained that some $30 million of second-quarter revenue was inventory sold into the channel, which analysts can't see. Excluding it, he said, US demand more than tripled to over $120 million from about $37 million.
The CFO pointed to Foundayo's share of new-to-brand prescriptions, which he said doubled from the last quarter to about 40%, a strong indication of how total prescriptions will follow.
While initial US Foundayo prescriptions have trailed oral Wegovy, some analysts expect the Lilly pill to emerge as a significant growth driver as it launches in more international markets.
"Foundayo continues to lag," said BMO Capital Markets analyst Evan Seigerman, "though the strength of Lilly's broader commercial business makes this less of a concern in our view."
Foundayo was launched in the US and Britain earlier this year and could begin selling in other European countries by year-end.
Lilly's realized prices fell 15% in the third quarter, offsetting part of a 53% rise in volume. US prices fell 7%, a decline Lilly attributed primarily to Zepbound and said was partly offset by adjustments to rebate and discount estimates. Outside the US, prices fell 29%, driven mainly by Mounjaro's inclusion on China's national reimbursement drug list.
BOOMING MOUNJARO, ZEPBOUND DEMAND
Lilly posted third-quarter revenue of $24.4 billion, topping analyst expectations of $22.61 billion, while adjusted profit of $7.48 per share sailed past estimates of $6.26, according to LSEG data.
Revenue included about $900 million of benefits, primarily $410 million of milestone payments tied to diabetes drug Jardiance, which Lilly said are the last it expects to receive, and favorable adjustments to rebate and discount estimates.
Third-quarter sales of diabetes drug Mounjaro reached $10.72 billion, topping Wall Street expectations of $10.16 billion, while its related obesity injection Zepbound brought in $5.35 billion versus estimates of $5.09 billion.
The robust sales will help ease market worries that severe price erosion from the $50-a-month price tag for Medicare recipients would outweigh explosive volume gains.
Lilly said more than 500,000 patients are accessing its obesity medicines through the Medicare program, with 7 in 10 patients new to the program choosing its treatments.
While the new US pilot unlocked coverage for potentially millions who use the government's Medicare program for people aged 65 and over, the bulk of Lilly's non-reimbursed volume has historically moved through its $449-a-month cash-pay platform, raising stakes over how the discounts will impact long-term margins.
Even as Lilly's obesity injections maintain commercial momentum, Wall Street's attention is shifting toward retatrutide, the company's next-generation weight-loss candidate slated for regulatory submission next year.
Retatrutide has been shown to drive average weight loss of 24% in midstage trials, topping results of drugs already on the market.
(Reporting by Patrick Wingrove in London, Christy Santhosh and Sriparna Roy in Bengaluru. Editing by Mark Potter and Bill Berkrot)
