By Gabriel Araujo and Kylie Madry
SAO PAULO, Aug 4 (Reuters) - LATAM Airlines raised its full-year core earnings forecast on Tuesday after improving fuel price expectations, while saying its business model had proven resilient amid the oil shock linked to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.
The carrier said it now expects 2026 adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of $4.1 billion to $4.4 billion, up from the $3.8 billion to $4.2 billion range it forecast in May.
Latin America's largest airline also estimated capacity growth of 9% to 10% this year.
Chief Financial Officer Ricardo Bottas said LATAM was benefiting from a more favorable fuel price outlook than the one assumed three months ago, after conflict in the Middle East disrupted oil flows and caused jet fuel prices to skyrocket.
"We are now updating our (price) scenario to around $150 per barrel for the third quarter instead of $170, and $130 for the fourth quarter instead of $150," Bottas said.
He added that while fuel prices remain well above pre-conflict assumptions of around $90 per barrel, the improvement justified an upgrade to the earnings outlook.
Bottas said the second half would remain challenging due to uncertainty surrounding the geopolitical situation, but added that LATAM was increasingly confident in a gradual recovery of the operating environment and in its business model.
"There was a test, and we passed that test," he said.
In December, before the conflict, LATAM had forecast 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $4.2 billion to $4.6 billion.
Q2 RESULTS
The outlook update came as LATAM reported second-quarter net profit of $125.2 million, down from $241.6 million a year earlier.
Revenue climbed 27% to $4.12 billion, with passenger traffic remaining the main growth driver but cargo also contributing to the top-line rise.
Fuel costs nearly doubled from a year earlier, as the airline faced what Bottas described as more than $800 million in additional fuel expenses in a single quarter.
"That was the magnitude of the challenge we faced during this period," he said.
EMBRAER E2 EXPANSION IN BRAZIL
Separately, LATAM announced the first phase of its operations with Embraer's E195-E2 jets in Brazil, which will see up to 14 aircraft introduced between late 2026 and early 2027 across 42 routes.
LATAM Brazil head Jerome Cadier said the aircraft would support expansion in markets with strong corporate demand, including agribusiness and oil-producing regions, while strengthening connectivity through the carrier's hubs.
Cadier said the company was already evaluating about 18 potential destinations for further expansion in April 2027.
(Reporting by Gabriel Araujo and Kylie Madry; Editing by Iñigo Alexander)
