Mathematician Who Correctly Predicted Winners Of Last 3 FIFA World Cups, Goes Dutch For 2026 Edition

As the 2026 FIFA World Cup nears, a bold prediction from German economist and mathematician Joachim Klement has cast the spotlight on an unexpected contender: the Netherlands.

Klement has gained recognition in football circles for correctly forecasting the winners of the last three World Cups: Germany in 2014, France in 2018 and Argentina in 2022. Ironically, he originally developed his model to demonstrate just how difficult it is to predict World Cup champions.

“The first time, I was horrified when Germany became world champions in Brazil, also because all the experts had pointed out that no European team had ever won a World Cup in South America,” he said.

How Netherlands Win?

For the 2026 edition, which will be hosted across the United States, Canada and Mexico

and feature an expanded 48-team field, Klement’s statistical model predicts a historic triumph for the Dutch. According to his projections, the Netherlands will defeat Spain in the semi-finals before overcoming Portugal in the final. Portugal, meanwhile, are tipped to eliminate England in the other semi-final.

Klement’s model incorporates several variables, including GDP per capita, population size, FIFA rankings, the cultural importance of football within a country and a measure of randomness.

No Bets Please

Despite its past success, he remains cautious about attaching too much importance to these forecasts.

“It’s completely irrational,” he said. “It’s like playing the lottery. I always say that if anyone places a bet based on my prediction of who will be the next world champion, they’re beyond help.

“It’s like tossing a coin. You might predict that the coin will land on heads four times in a row rather than tails, and that might well happen. But that doesn’t guarantee it will happen again next time.”

Led by Ronald Koeman, the Netherlands will enter the tournament aiming to end one of football’s longest waits. The Dutch have reached three World Cup finals but have never lifted the trophy. Their campaign begins against Japan before further Group F matches against Sweden and Tunisia.