Predicting The Voter's Pulse: How Close Were Exit Polls To Actual Results In Bihar, Other States?

Predicting election results in a state as politically volatile as Bihar is not only challenging but involves going through various permutations and combinations.

It is maybe for that reason why exit polls

have frequently missed the mark during tight contests in Bihar. But this is true for other states as well.

THE BIHAR CASE

Exit polls, which are essentially surveys, are subject to a margin of error and the complexities of methodology and sampling in a politically and socially diverse state like Bihar.

Hence, historically, the accuracy of exit polls conducted during previous assembly elections in Bihar has been notably mixed with several predictions proving to be quite erratic. The 2020 election serves as a crucial example.

While the majority of exit polls predicted a clear victory or lead for the Mahagathbandhan led by the RJD and Congress, the actual result saw the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) under Nitish Kumar securing a narrow win. The final seat tally showed the NDA achieving 125 seats (just crossing the 122-seat majority mark), while the Mahagathbandhan secured 110 seats. Yes, the margin was thin.

Here, data from pollsters illustrate how most of them were wrong:

• Agencies like Today’s Chanakya projected a massive landslide for the Mahagathbandhan, estimating they would win approximately 180 seats while projecting only 55 for the NDA.
• Axis My India predicted a clear majority for the Mahagathbandhan with a seat range of 139 to 161.
• While C Voter predicted a close contest, its estimation of a Mahagathbandhan win was still incorrect.
• The only pollster to get the results right was Dainik Bhaskar, which predicted 120 to 127 seats for the NDA and 95 to 102 seats for Mahagathbandhan.

These failures demonstrate that the majority of exit polls underestimated the NDA’s final tally. An analysis of the vote share also shows that while the election was a close contest, the potential for a major miss in exit poll projections increases dramatically.