Indian equity markets are likely to open on a cautious note on Thursday, August 13, with the Gift Nifty indicating a muted start amid persistent concerns over elevated crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.
Gift Nifty was trading at 24,432, down 39 points or 0.16 per cent, as of 7:40 am, indicating that the Nifty 50 could open close to its previous session’s level. The Nifty had closed at 24,435 on Wednesday.
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, a Sebi-registered online trading and wealth-tech firm, said Indian equities are expected to remain under pressure at higher levels, with elevated crude prices continuing to weigh on investor sentiment.
“Indian equity markets are expected to open on a cautious note, with
GIFT Nifty futures hovering just above the 24,400 mark compared with the Nifty’s previous close of 24,435, pointing to a muted start despite a rebound across global markets,” Ponmudi said.
He added that elevated crude oil prices, driven by the continuing US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, remain the primary overhang for domestic equities.
Global Cues Support Market Sentiment
Global risk appetite improved after softer-than-expected US inflation data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged at its September meeting.
US consumer prices increased 0.1 per cent in July, in line with market expectations. The data has reduced expectations of an immediate rate hike, with money markets now pricing in a 40 per cent chance of a rate increase next month, compared with 54 per cent a week earlier, according to CME Group’s FedWatch.
Asian markets were trading higher on Thursday. South Korea’s Kospi jumped more than 4 per cent, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained around 1.9 per cent. The MSCI broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up nearly 1 per cent.
Wall Street, however, ended mixed overnight, with the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 posting marginal gains while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed lower.
Crude Oil Remains Key Risk For Indian Markets
Despite easing from recent highs, crude oil prices remain elevated. US crude was trading around $82.58 a barrel, while Brent crude stood at around $88.35 per barrel.
Oil prices remain closely linked to developments around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global energy supplies. The US and Iran remain deadlocked over efforts to reach an agreement to end the conflict in the Gulf.
US President Donald Trump said the US has “total control” over the Strait of Hormuz, a claim rejected by Iran, which said the route remained blocked.
For India, sustained high crude prices could increase the country’s import bill, put pressure on the rupee and complicate the inflation outlook. Higher input costs could also weigh on corporate profit margins.
Ponmudi said oil is likely to retain a geopolitical risk premium until there is greater clarity over the situation around the Strait of Hormuz.
“Until there is greater clarity on the Strait of Hormuz, oil is likely to retain a geopolitical risk premium, keeping India’s inflation outlook, import costs, the rupee, and corporate margins firmly in focus,” he said.
Technical View
From a technical perspective, the Nifty 50 is likely to remain under pressure at higher levels unless the index decisively reclaims the 24,500-24,600 resistance zone.
“A sustained breakout above 24,600 could strengthen buying momentum and pave the way for an advance towards the 24,800-25,000 region,” Ponmudi said.
On the downside, the 24,300-24,250 zone is expected to act as the immediate support area, followed by the psychologically important 24,000 level.
A decisive break below 24,250 could intensify selling pressure and weaken the near-term technical structure further. For now, 24,600 remains the key upside trigger, while the 24,250 area will be important to watch on the downside.
In the previous session on Wednesday, Indian benchmark indices ended lower for the second consecutive session, weighed down by elevated crude oil prices and selling pressure in TCS and other Tata Group stocks.
The BSE Sensex declined 187.90 points, or 0.24 per cent, to settle at 77,966.35. The index had fallen as much as 656.32 points, or 0.83 per cent, during the session before recovering some of its losses towards the close. Selling pressure in Tata Group stocks intensified after N Chandrasekaran said he would not seek reappointment as Tata Sons chairman when his current term ends on February 20, 2027.
/images/ppid_59c68470-image-178664006448214989.webp)
/images/ppid_59c68470-image-178651755980149496.webp)