With 3.9 Million New Additions, Jio Leads In Active Telecom Subscriber Jump In October: Jefferies

Jio added 3.9 million telecom subscribers, while Bharti 2.8 million, leading to an active subscriber jump by 5.7 million in October, according to Jefferies equity research report. VIL meanwhile lost 0.4

million active subscribers Data subscriber growth remained healthy, with 4G/5G adds of 2.9m driven by Jio and Bharti, lifting their combined share to 84%. Strong subscriber momentum CYTD25 and rising data penetration bode well for ARPUs, said the report.

Active subscribers rise sharply in CYTD25

During October, the sector’s active subscriber base rose by 5.7 million to 1,094m — highest monthly addition in the past five months. Active subscriber base grew by ~34m during CYTD’25 – the highest in 8 years.
While non-urban markets (B/C Circles) witnessed 5.2m/4.3m subscriber additions, Urban markets (A Circles and Metro) saw declines of -3.1m and -0.6m. Jio (+3.9m) and Bharti (+2.8m) led subscriber additions, while Vodafone lost 0.4m subscribers. Bharti’s 2.8m subscriber additions was the highest addition in the last 9 months. Jio added more active subscribers than Bharti for the 8th straight month, according to the report.

Subscriber additions concentrated in a few circles

While Bharti gained active subscriber in 9 out of 22 circles, ~60% of the additions were in Bihar. Bharti Hexacom’s subscriber base rose by 0.6m – the highest monthly addition in last 30 quarters. Reliance Jio’s subscriber additions were concentrated in Bihar, UP (E) and UP (W) which was partly offset by the decline in AP. Both Jio’s and Bharti’s subscriber gains were concentrated in B and C-Circles. This may have been partly due to subscriber migration during the festive season and may reverse during November/December.

4G/5G subscribers continue to pick up

The sector’s 4G/5G subscriber base grew by 2.9m in October after rising by 4.8m in September. Jio (+2.3m) and Bharti Airtel (+1.8m) dominated data subscription additions, while BSNL/MTNL (-0.3m) and VIL (-0.5m) saw moderate declines. Both Bharti and Jio gained 10bps data subscriber market share and their combined market is healthy at 84%.

VIL’s subscriber base remains volatile

VIL’s active subscriber base fell by 0.4m, reversing the improvement seen over the last two months. However, its subscriber losses are moderating, with VIL losing an average of 0.5m subs per month in CYTD’25 vis-à-vis an average loss of 1.7m subs per month in CY24. In Oct, VIL lost active subscribers in 17/22 circles, reflecting pressure in subscriber retention.

Jio’s subscriber market share gains continue

Over the past 12 months, Jio’s active subscriber market share has risen by 150bps to 43%, driven by market share gains across circles (60bps/150bps/170bps/120bps in Metros/A/B/C-Circles). Bharti Airtel’s active subscriber market share has fallen by ~10bps to 36%, led by market share loss in A, B and C Circles partly offset by gains in Metros. Bharti’s market share in Metros is the highest ever at 34%. Vodafone Idea’s market share has fallen by 110bps to 16%, driven by Metros/A & B Circles.

MNP requests remain near record-high

The sector’s MNP requests remain elevated at 15m, near the record-high level, possibly as users continue to shift between operators post-tariff hikes, said the report.

Key takeaways from the report

1) Strong pick up in subscriber base for the sector despite high tariffs suggests that there is more headroom for tariff hikes.
2) Rising data penetration and Jio’s continued outperformance vs Bharti on active subscriber additions should be positive for the sector’s overall tariff outlook.
3) VIL’s active subscriber base additions remain volatile however the osses have moderated suggesting encouraging trends for Indus Towers.