Canada Records Sharpest Population Decline In 80 Years. Reason: Fewer Temporary Residents

Canada recorded its largest quarterly decline in population in at least eight decades between July and September this year, driven largely by a sharp reduction in the number of temporary residents, particularly international students, according to official data.

Population estimates released by Statistics Canada (StatCan) showed the country’s population fell by 76,068 people, or 0.2%, between the second and third quarters of 2025. StatCan data going back to 1946 shows no sharper quarterly decline. The last time Canada recorded a population drop was during the Covid-19 pandemic, when the population declined marginally by 1,232 people in the final quarter of 2020.

What Caused Population Decline In Canada?

StatCan said the fall was primarily due to

a significant reduction in non-permanent residents. “Preliminary estimates show that the reduction in the number of non-permanent residents in Canada (-176,479) in the third quarter of 2025 was the primary reason for the decrease in Canada’s population over this period,” the agency noted.

As of October 1, 2025, Canada had 2,847,737 non-permanent residents, accounting for 6.8% of the total population, down from 3,024,216 or 7.3% on July 1. The drop was attributed to “larger, record-high outflows” of temporary residents.

How Does This Compare With Recent Population Trends?

The decline marks a sharp reversal from recent years of rapid population growth. In the third quarter of 2023, Canada’s population rose by 418,634 people, or 1%, the highest quarterly increase since 1957. Even as recently as the third quarter of 2024, the population grew by 231,803 people, or 0.6%.

That surge followed immigration policies adopted under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, which led to a historic intake of temporary residents. Public backlash over housing affordability and pressure on infrastructure later prompted Ottawa to roll back those policies.

Did International Students Decline In Canada?

A significant portion of the decline was linked to a steep fall in the number of international students. Data from Immigration, Refugees and Immigration Canada (IRCC) showed that study permits issued to Indian students dropped by more than half in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the same period last year.

Between July and September 2025, Indian students accounted for 24,030 study permits out of a total of 146,505, or 16.4%. In the same period in 2024, Indians received 52,425 permits, nearly 30% of the 177,025 visas issued. In September alone, Indian students were granted 8,400 of the 49,350 study permits issued, compared to 14,385 out of 46,230 in September 2024.

Why Did Canada Tighten Student Visa Rules?

The decline follows restrictions introduced from late 2023 onwards, as concerns grew over a surge in temporary immigrants contributing to rising housing costs and strain on public infrastructure.

In November, the government projected a 7% drop in the total number of international students issued permits next year. IRCC said study permits in 2026 would be capped at 408,000, including 155,000 new permits and 253,000 extensions.

“This number is 7% lower than the 2025 issuance target of 437,000 and 16% lower than the 2024 issuance target of 485,000,” IRCC said.

IRCC said the cap on study permits, first introduced in 2024, had slowed the growth of Canada’s temporary population. The number of study permit holders fell from more than one million in January 2024 to about 725,000 by September 2025.

“While this progress is significant, further reductions are needed to meet our commitment of reducing the share of Canada’s temporary population to below 5% of the total population by the end of 2027,” the department said.