Missiles, Mixed Messages And A Fragile Truce: What's The Status Of US-Iran Negotiations?

More than two months after a ceasefire halted direct hostilities between the United States and Iran, the future of negotiations between the two sides remains uncertain as fresh military confrontations and regional tensions continue to test diplomacy.

Conflicting messages have emerged in recent days over the status of the talks. While US President Donald Trump has repeatedly insisted that discussions with Tehran are continuing, Iranian officials say contacts have not been severed but acknowledge that little progress has been made.

US President Donald Trump has said he believes that talks with Iran are going well, while adding that he expects to meet with Iran’s supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei “at some point”.

“I hear the negotiation itself is going

very well actually,” Trump said of a potential deal. “It could happen…over the weekend.”

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran and Washington are still reviewing draft texts exchanged during earlier rounds of negotiations. Speaking to Hezbollah-affiliated Al Mayadeen, Araghchi said communication channels remain open, but added that negotiations have yet to produce a breakthrough.

A Four-Stage Roadmap

Amid the uncertainty, details of a possible framework for a future agreement have begun to emerge.

According to Saeed Ajorlou, a member of the media team attached to Iran’s negotiating delegation, a potential memorandum of understanding between Tehran and Washington could be implemented through a four-stage mechanism if both sides reach an agreement.

The first stage would involve a complete cessation of military operations across all fronts, covering Iran, the United States and Tehran’s regional allies.

The second phase would focus on practical measures, including arrangements related to the Strait of Hormuz, lifting the US-led blockade, easing restrictions on Iranian oil exports, removing certain sanctions and releasing a portion of Iran’s frozen assets.

The third stage would involve formal negotiations on sanctions relief and Iran’s nuclear programme.

The final stage would establish a joint monitoring mechanism tasked with overseeing implementation and ensuring both sides fulfil their commitments.

Lebanon, Hormuz Emerge As Major Sticking Points

Even as negotiators discuss a possible framework, Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz have emerged as one of the biggest obstacles to any agreement.

Israel has signalled that it intends to continue military operations against Hezbollah despite ongoing diplomatic efforts. Iran, meanwhile, insists that any ceasefire arrangement must apply across the region rather than being limited to specific fronts.

Araghchi also warned that Tehran would respond decisively if Israel launched a major attack on Beirut, underscoring how closely the Lebanon front has become linked to broader US-Iran negotiations.

The fighting between Israel and Hezbollah continued even after US President Donald Trump spoke to both sides and announced a ceasefire.

Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Iran must meet two key conditions before negotiations can move forward: fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz without attacks, threats or tolls on commercial shipping, and commit to talks on eliminating its stockpile of highly enriched uranium and halting uranium enrichment.

Talks Continue, But Breakthrough Remains Elusive

Iran on Wednesday hit US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain after American forces struck Qeshm Island. While both Washington and Tehran continue to exchange messages and review proposals, repeated military incidents across the region, including clashes involving Hezbollah, Israeli strikes in Lebanon and tensions in the Gulf, continue to complicate diplomatic efforts.

For now, neither side has walked away from the negotiating table. But with missiles still flying across parts of the region and key disagreements unresolved, a comprehensive deal remains some distance away.