How Will US Navy’s Strait Of Hormuz Blockade Impact Iran And Its Economy?

Iran has long demonstrated resilience to US sanctions, continuing to function despite sustained economic pressure and its involvement in multiple regional conflicts since 2023, including backing groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and Hamas in Palestine, alongside its ongoing confrontation with the United States and Israel.

However, the naval blockade imposed by the United States — following orders from President Donald Trump — could still have significant economic consequences.

The move is widely seen as an attempt to pressure Tehran into ending hostilities and curbing its nuclear programme.

The conflict escalated after US-Israeli strikes on February 28 that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, triggering

a broader regional confrontation. Iran subsequently restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy route.

The US announced its own blockade on Sunday after peace talks failed, with enforcement beginning at 1400 GMT on Monday. The move has been condemned by Iran as well as allies including Russia and China.

Analysts told Al Jazeera, Qatari-state funded broadcaster, that the blockade could directly impact Iran’s ability to export oil — the backbone of its economy.

“Iran would not be able to export oil, at least not at the same level. The Iranians also wouldn’t be able to get tolls,” Mohamad Elmasry of the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies told the broadcaster.

Iran primarily exports oil and gas via the Strait of Hormuz, with hubs such as Kharg Island playing a central role.

Will The Blockade Hurt Iran’s Oil Revenue?

Despite the conflict, Iran’s oil exports have remained robust in recent weeks.

Data from Kpler shows Iran exported about 1.84 million barrels per day (bpd) in March and around 1.71 million bpd so far in April, compared with an average of 1.68 million bpd in 2025 — indicating an uptick in shipments during the early phase of the conflict.

Oil prices have also remained elevated, with key Iranian blends trading above $90 per barrel and crossing $100 on several occasions. Between March 15 and April 14, Iran exported an estimated 55.22 million barrels of crude.

According to estimates cited by Al Jazeera, Iran may have earned nearly $5 billion from oil exports over the past month, though these figures could not be independently verified.

The report also suggested Iran’s oil revenues had risen compared to pre-war levels.

What Changes Does The US Blockade Bring?

Experts say the blockade could begin to erode these gains.

Frederic Schneider, a nonresident senior fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, said the past few weeks had been favourable for Iran’s oil revenues, but the blockade could reverse that trend.

“The six weeks had been a boon for Iran in terms of oil revenues, but with the US blockade, that will change,” he told Al Jazeera.

Iran does have some buffer in the form of floating storage — crude held on tankers at sea — estimated at around 127 million barrels earlier this year. However, Schneider cautioned that this would only offer temporary relief.

According to maritime intelligence firm Windward, Iran had around 157.7 million barrels of oil at sea as of Monday, with nearly all of it — about 97.6% — destined for China. Any disruption to these flows could have a significant impact.

Will Trade Of Other Goods Be Hit?

Beyond oil, the blockade could affect Iran’s broader trade.

Exports such as petrochemicals, plastics and agricultural goods — often shipped to countries like China and India — may face disruptions. On the import side, supplies of industrial machinery, electronics and food, largely sourced from China, the UAE and Turkey, could also be affected.

Schneider warned that any disruption to non-oil trade could deepen economic strain and lead to domestic shortages.

“The question will be whether this increased suffering will force Iran to concede defeat or whether it will harden its resolve,” he said, adding that the durability of the blockade itself remains uncertain.