Ships continue to pass through the the narrow Bab el Mandeb strait despite threats from the Iran-backed Houthis, found a New York Times analysis of shipping data. Dozens of ships have made the journey even in these precarious condition.
However, the report did note that with each day passing uncertainty regarding the war situation and safety grows. Given that backdrop, ships have made u-turns too.
Some of the ships were even on course to reach India and China, the report noted. These ships turned without completing their journeys.
In the last week, at least three oil tankers were attacked by the Houthi-rebels in de-facto control of Yemen. The latest attack had come on Friday.
Effect On Global Trade
Any sustained disruption in the Red Sea would deal another blow to global
trade, already strained by the widening conflict in the Middle East. The war between the United States and Iran, now in its fifth month, has already curtailed movement through the Strait of Hormuz, a key passage that once carried about a fifth of the world’s oil.
In response, Saudi Arabia has been rerouting millions of barrels of crude each day through a pipeline linking the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea. Much of that crude oil then exits via the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a narrow corridor off Yemen that sits close to Houthi-controlled territory.
That route has come under fresh threat after the Houthis announced plans earlier this week to block shipping linked to Saudi Arabia, raising concerns over a critical alternative supply line.
Mixed Signals On Shipping Activity
Initial signs pointed to disruption, with nearly a dozen vessels either turning back or avoiding the strait altogether, according to maritime data firm Kpler. However, the overall picture remains unclear as more ships switch off tracking systems to avoid detection, complicating efforts to monitor traffic, analysts say.
At the same time, some data suggests activity has not slowed uniformly. Kpler recorded 43 ships crossing the Bab al-Mandab on Thursday, up from 35 a day earlier, even after the Houthis claimed attacks on Saudi oil tankers.
A Saudi-linked vessel was also targeted in the Red Sea on Friday, with officials confirming minor damage but no casualties, and the ship continuing its journey.
Limited Alternatives Add Pressure
The Red Sea has been a recurring flashpoint. In 2024, the Houthis repeatedly targeted vessels linked to Israel, framing the attacks as part of their response to the Gaza conflict.
With risks rising again, some shipping companies are considering northern routes via the Suez Canal. But this option is both longer and more expensive, and the canal cannot accommodate fully loaded supertankers. That forces additional transfers to pipelines or smaller vessels, tightening capacity and raising costs.
Oil Supply And Prices Under Strain
With disruptions in both the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, analysts estimate that roughly a quarter of global oil supply is now exposed to risk. The uncertainty has already pushed up prices, with Brent crude nearing $100 a barrel this week, its highest level in about two months.
The situation remains fluid, with markets and shipping operators closely watching how far the latest tensions will escalate.
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