Looks like unseasonal rain has followed April after a thoroughly confusing March, where mainly the northern parts of India were subject to unusual weather patterns – from snowfall in the higher reaches to hail and thunderstorms in the plains.
While the India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued rain alerts across India, it said the sudden dip in mercury has nothing to do with the early arrival of the southwest monsoon.
Respite from the summer heat, yes, but this is not a signal for an early monsoon. This atmospheric instability, however, is a series of intense pre-monsoon showers driven by successive western disturbances (WD) and local moisture interactions.
SEASONAL ANOMALY?
The MeT stressed a clear distinction between these transient storms and the official
monsoon onset, which is typically expected in Kerala around June 1.
It said the current wet spell is primarily the result of two back-to-back western disturbances – non-monsoonal, east-moving rain-bearing wind systems that originate beyond Afghanistan and Iran. These pick up moisture from the Mediterranean, Black, Caspian, and Arabian seas before being carried over the Indian subcontinent by the high-altitude subtropical westerly jet stream.
While WDs are most common between December and March, their persistence into April has caused significant disruption. In March alone, eight such disturbances impacted India surpassing the normal average of five or six.
According to the IMD, the technical criteria for the monsoon – specific wind speeds, depth, and consistent rainfall across 14 designated stations – are only monitored after May 10. The current rainfall, therefore, is classified as “seasonal disturbances” rather than a shift in the broader monsoonal cycle.
WHAT IS THE IMPACT?
The impact of these western disturbances has been most acutely felt in northwest India, where temperatures have dipped to levels more reminiscent of late winter.
In Delhi, the IMD predicted “February-like” cooler temperatures due to persistent cloud cover that prevents solar heat from penetrating during the day. On April 5, the national capital’s maximum temperature settled at 32°C, two notches below normal.
“This is due to the presence of a cloud cover, as a result of which lesser heat penetrates during the day and lesser heat escapes from the earth’s surface at night,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice-president at Skymet, while explaining the phenomenon.
The cooling effect has been even more dramatic in other regions. In Punjab, the average maximum temperature dropped by 2.6 degrees Celsius below normal, while Haryana temperatures stayed 1.8 degrees Celsius below the seasonal average.
In areas like Gwalior and Rewa, minimum temperatures dropped by as much as 2.4°C. While the cold has been a novelty for urban residents – even leading to an improvement in Delhi’s air quality from “poor” to “moderate” – the weather has been far less kind to the agricultural sector.
HOW DOES THIS AFFECT AGRICULTURE?
For farmers in Rajasthan, Punjab, and Haryana, the unseasonal hail and rain have been nothing short of catastrophic.
Wheat growers, in particular, are facing major losses as their crops near harvest. In Rajasthan, the situation has escalated to a political and economic crisis.
Deputy chief minister Prem Chand Bairwa termed the situation a “natural disaster”. “The chief minister has directed all officials to assess the damage and has asked all public representatives to submit reports from their respective areas. Our chief minister and the BJP government stand with the farmers,” he said.
Former Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot has also voiced concerns, demanding immediate financial assistance for those affected.
“In some parts of the state, unseasonal rain and hailstorms have brought disaster upon farmers. Wheat and isabgol crops have been damaged in Bikaner division, while in Nagaur, crops like isabgol, cumin, wheat and fennel have suffered heavy losses,” Gehlot said.
The IMD has issued advice to farmers to cover harvested grains or shift them to safe storage to prevent further spoilage.
WHICH AREAS ARE UNDER RAIN ALERT?
The IMD has issued an “orange alert” across multiple states, including Punjab, Haryana, Uttarakhand, and Himachal Pradesh.
It signifies a high likelihood of intense weather activity, including hailstorms and squally winds reaching speeds of 60 to 70 kmph. In the higher reaches of Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh, fresh snowfall has led to the closure of several vital inter-district roads.
Mountain passes such as Sadhna Top, Razdan Top, and the Sonamarg-Zojila axis have all recorded fresh overnight snow, forcing residents to “layer up” once again to battle the cold. In central and south India, the weather pattern has manifested as “mango showers”, driven by moisture-laden winds from the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea interacting with local heat.
While these bring temporary relief to states like Maharashtra and Gujarat, they have been accompanied by yellow alerts for thunderstorms and lightning in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Karnataka.
SO, DOES THIS MEAN NO HEAT?
Despite the cool weather at present, weather scientists have warned that this is a temporary phase. The IMD’s seasonal outlook maintains that once these disturbances pass, most of India will return to a “hotter-than-usual” summer.
While day temperatures are expected to remain near or below normal for the immediate week, the underlying seasonal trend suggests extreme heat will eventually dominate. The first official forecast for the 2026 southwest monsoon is slated for release in mid-April.
Until then, the authorities remain on high alert for continued atmospheric volatility. With peak activity from a new, strong western disturbance expected around April 7, regions such as Jodhpur, Bikaner, and Jaipur are braced for further thunderstorms and potential hailstorms.
As the IMD continues to monitor these transient storms, the message is clear: the rain may feel like an early monsoon, but the true summer heat – and the official rainy season – are still on the horizon.
