Fresh US intelligence assessments suggest recent American and Israeli military operations have caused only limited additional damage to Iran’s nuclear programme, despite months of conflict and repeated strikes on key facilities.
According to sources familiar with the assessments, Iran’s estimated timeline for developing a potential nuclear weapon remains broadly unchanged from last year, even after attacks targeting major nuclear sites including Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan.
US intelligence agencies reportedly believe the earlier strikes in 2025 pushed back Iran’s programme by roughly nine months to a year. Still, more recent operations have not significantly added to that delay.
A key concern for Washington is Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched
uranium, much of which is believed to remain hidden in underground facilities beyond the reach of existing US bunker-busting munitions. The International Atomic Energy Agency is said to believe Iran possesses enough enriched material for up to 10 nuclear bombs if weaponised.
The findings are likely to intensify debate over the effectiveness of the ongoing US-Israeli military campaign, which President Donald Trump has repeatedly said was aimed at preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
American officials continue to maintain that stopping Tehran from developing a bomb remains a central objective of the conflict. However, intelligence officials reportedly acknowledge that Iran’s deeply buried facilities and remaining uranium stockpiles present major operational challenges.
The report also comes amid broader regional instability, including tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and a fragile ceasefire between Iran, the US and Israel.
Some analysts believe the killing of Iranian nuclear scientists and damage to air defence systems may still slow Tehran’s progress over time, though the full impact remains uncertain.


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