Opinion | America And The Deal: Why India Must Prepare For The Worst

It is finally clear what the 50 per cent tariffs on India were meant to do. They were leveraged to extract a favourable treaty from India. That is why even during the talks that have resumed recently, the sudden bad-mouthing of India turned back to bromance, and the increased tariffs were not discontinued. A gun was placed at India’s head, and “saam-daam-danda-bheda” was adroitly used to force it to give in. Except that it did not. And the US lost its partnership of the century.

Now the $100,000 fee for H-1B visas effectively means they are not going to be availed by most companies. They are meant to cock the gun that has been placed at India’s head. And the gun will stay until a better deal is concluded. Except that it will not. And Prime Minister

Narendra Modi will now dig in his heels.

The bromance may continue verbally, superficially, but I am afraid that an incurable fracture of goodwill has been induced. The reason for this belief is the way it was sprung. The surprise announcement of the fee on H-1Bs was meant to be cute and for the sake of enthusing the MAGA crowd. Except that right after the trade talks and positive vibes coming from DC, it feels like a slap in the face. How will India trust any more expressions of goodwill from the US going forward?

India knows this well from its past dealings with the West. Greet the enemy with a smile, and as they open their arms to embrace you, stab them in the back. Then mock them while they bleed and reel from the shock of the betrayal. This seems to be the modus operandi, and it brings back a lot of bad memories. The 1971 war and Nixon and Kissinger, who openly trashed India and Indians, might as well serve as role models here.

Except they did not greet India with a fake smile and call the Prime Minister a great friend. Except that they did not call India a strategic partner, and the defining relationship of this century, with shared ideals of democracy and open societies.

Let us face it. India did not see this coming. Now it needs to prepare for worse. What more injury can possibly be inflicted? The US may arm Pakistan to the hilt and covertly support its nuclear programmes, like in the 1970s? It can body-slam the great desi friend a little more by declaring taxes on outsourced services too? Well, that will hurt, won’t it? India must expect it and prepare for it.

Recently, I was watching the Senate confirmation of the new ambassador to India, and I was surprised to hear not one dissenting voice on how India has been treated and how it might be irretrievably lost. It is surprising to see that not one senator has a clue about how Indians think and respond. They are still parroting the cliché that the US and India are great strategic allies while doing everything to kill their relationship.

Let me be the bearer of bad news here for both sides. The friendship is dead. I am afraid the die has been cast. It does not look pretty.

What can India do?

India needs to move and move fast. It cannot remain complacent with the fact that it is the fastest-growing large economy in the world. It must accept that it has very few friends it can trust.

There is much work to be done. The ease of doing business is still only a buzzword and not a ground reality. On a recent visit to India, it took me nearly three weeks to cash in on a life insurance policy. One year to get permits for a hospital I wish to build. More than 6 months to sell shares in a company that I own. It takes me one to two days to accomplish the same in the US.

Yes, much has improved. The attitude is more “rajasik”, full of the can-do spirit. But that will not be enough. If India wishes to take on the best, it needs to be the best.

Its healthcare and education are still third-world in many ways. Its ability to innovate and disrupt is yet unharnessed.

There are too many hyenas swirling around. Waiting for India to make a mistake. And they surround it from all sides, and some rear their heads from within at the slightest provocation.

Most of its politics and politicians are crassly corrupt. And inefficient, which might be worse.

India’s professionals and techies are not yet the best in class. Its startup culture has barely started up.

India is alone and vulnerable. And it knows it.

But this can all be turned into a blessing.

There was never a better time to rocket itself into the stratosphere. Or the best opportunity in centuries for it to rise in greatness.

Nations do not become great by building great alliances. Nor do they achieve heights of success by looking at others. They do so by giving themselves a kick in the pants. By pulling no punches and taking no prisoners. By awakening from “tamas” with a fierce will to be the best.

This is divine intervention, in my opinion. Is India up for it?

It is a question each of us must answer. Individually. And then collectively.

Pariksith Singh is author, poet, philosopher and medical practitioner based in Florida. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.