India’s Total Fertility Rate, or TFR, has fallen below the replacement level for the first time, according to the Sample Registration System Statistical Report 2024 released by the Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner under the Union Ministry of Home Affairs.
The national TFR stood at 1.9 in 2024, below the replacement benchmark of 2.1. In simple terms, this means the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime has now fallen below the level needed for a population to replace itself from one generation to the next.
The shift does not mean India’s population has started declining. India had a population of around 360 million in 1950, when the average woman gave birth to six children. Today, India’s population is
around 1.45 billion. The country overtook China in 2023 to become the world’s most populous nation and continues to grow.
But the fertility data shows that the pace of future population growth is slowing. If fertility remains below the replacement level for a long period, population growth gradually decelerates and eventually begins to decline.
What Is Total Fertility Rate?
Total Fertility Rate is the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her reproductive years. A TFR of 2.1 is generally treated as the replacement level, meaning the level at which a population broadly replaces itself over time, without migration.
India’s TFR has declined sharply over five decades. According to the SRS Statistical Report 2024, it fell from 5.2 during 1971-1981 to 4.5, then from 3.6 in 1991 to 1.9 in 2024.
Which States Have The Highest Fertility Rates?
Bihar recorded the highest fertility rate in the country at 2.9. It was followed by Uttar Pradesh at 2.6, Madhya Pradesh at 2.4 and Rajasthan at 2.3.
These are the only major states that remain above the replacement level of 2.1. The data shows that India’s fertility decline is not uniform. Large parts of the country are already far below replacement level, while some northern and central states continue to have relatively higher fertility.
Bihar also recorded the slowest decline among large states over the last decade. Its fertility rate fell by 9.4 per cent between 2012-14 and 2022-24. Chhattisgarh followed with an 11.5 per cent decline, while Himachal Pradesh and Punjab saw fertility fall by 11.8 per cent each.
The General Fertility Rate, which measures births per 1,000 women aged 15-49, also shows Bihar’s distinct position. Bihar had the highest GFR at 96 births per 1,000 women, followed by Uttar Pradesh at 83 and Rajasthan at 82.7.
Which States And UTs Have The Lowest Fertility Rates?
Delhi recorded the lowest TFR in the country at 1.2. To put that in perspective, this is lower than Finland’s fertility rate of 1.3, Finnish broadcasting firm Yle quoted Statistics Finland as saying in a report.
Tamil Nadu, Kerala and West Bengal each recorded a TFR of 1.3. Andhra Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Maharashtra and Punjab stood at 1.4, while Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka and Telangana each reported a fertility rate of 1.5.
Delhi also saw the sharpest decline in fertility over the last decade, with a 29.4 per cent reduction between 2012-14 and 2022-24. Gujarat followed with a 25 per cent decline, while Tamil Nadu recorded a 23.5 per cent fall.
This means that the country’s capital, several southern states, some western states and parts of the east are already deep into a low-fertility phase.
What Does The Rural-Urban Divide Show?
India’s fertility decline is sharper in cities than in villages. The SRS report shows that rural India’s TFR stood at 2.1 in 2024, exactly at the replacement level, while urban India’s TFR was much lower at 1.5.
The gap helps explain why states with larger rural populations, such as Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, continue to report higher fertility rates than more urbanised states and Union Territories.
The pattern was visible across almost all major states and Union Territories. Kerala was an exception, with urban fertility marginally higher than rural fertility, while Tamil Nadu reported the same fertility rate in both rural and urban areas.
The broader message is that city life is changing family size. Higher living costs, smaller homes, education expenses, women’s work participation and reduced family support for childcare are all pushing couples towards fewer children.
Why Is India’s Fertility Rate Falling?
The decline is not driven by one factor. It reflects a wider social and economic shift in how Indian families think about children, education, housing, work and lifestyle.
One important reason is the rising cost of raising children, especially education. The Economist has noted that many lower-income families are choosing to have only one child so they can spend more on private tutoring and better educational opportunities.
Urbanisation is another major factor. As people move to cities or adopt urban work patterns, the cost of housing, schooling, healthcare and childcare rises. Larger families become harder to support, especially for young couples living away from extended family support systems.
The weakening of the joint-family system also matters. The Economist noted that around 70 per cent of Indians now live in nuclear families, a shift driven by urbanisation and changing employment patterns. With fewer grandparents or relatives available for day-to-day childcare, raising children becomes more demanding for couples, encouraging many families to have fewer children.
Changing social attitudes are also reshaping fertility choices. Smaller families are increasingly seen as normal, desirable and aspirational, especially as television, the internet and social media expose households to different models of family life.
The Economist referred to research from the 2000s which found that pregnancies declined in some villages after cable television arrived, as TV serials showed urban middle-class women with smaller families and made the idea of having fewer children more socially acceptable.
Does This Mean India’s Population Will Soon Shrink?
Not immediately. Even when fertility falls below replacement level, a population can keep growing for years because of demographic momentum. India still has a large young population, which means the number of people entering reproductive age remains significant.
However, long-term projections suggest that the direction has changed. Researchers at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation estimate that India’s population will peak in about 21 years before beginning a steep decline, according to The Economist. By the end of the century, India’s population is projected to be slightly above one billion.
Tech billionaire Elon Musk also reacted to the fertility decline on X, writing: “India’s birth rate has fallen below replacement. Among those most educated, India’s birth rate fell below replacement many years ago.”
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