Market Prediction For Monday, June 29: Will Nifty Cross 24,200? West Asia, Crude Oil, Monsoon, FII Flows In Focus

Market Prediction For Monday, June 29: Indian stock markets are expected to begin the new trading week with investors closely tracking geopolitical developments in West Asia, crude oil prices, foreign fund flows and the progress of the southwest monsoon after domestic equities ended the previous week on a cautiously positive note.

On Thursday, the Nifty settled at 24,056.00, registering a modest weekly gain of 42.90 points, or 0.18%, indicating a consolidation phase after the recent recovery. The Nifty index started the week on a mildly positive note, opening 93.50 points higher at 24,106.60. However, profit booking emerged during the initial part of the week. Despite the early weakness, buying interest reappeared near lower levels, helping the index recover steadily.

Analysts expect volatility to remain elevated as investors assess fresh geopolitical developments and prepare for key domestic and global triggers in the days ahead.

Middle East Developments To Remain Key Market Trigger

According to Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, geopolitical developments will remain at the centre of investors’ attention after the latest military exchanges involving the United States and Iran.

He said markets will closely monitor whether diplomatic efforts regain momentum or whether tensions escalate further, as any deterioration could alter expectations around global growth and energy markets.

“The week ahead is likely to be shaped by developments on the geopolitical front, with investors closely monitoring tensions in the Middle East following the latest military exchanges involving U.S. and Iranian forces. Any signs of renewed negotiations or de-escalation could help sustain the recent improvement in risk sentiment, while a further deterioration in relations may prompt a reassessment of global growth and energy market expectations,” he said.

Iran War Update

In the latest update, the US forces launched retaliatory strikes on Iran in response to its attack on a commercial ship that was passing the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards on Saturday said it targeted US military positions in the region in retaliation for the strikes by Washington, according to Reuters.

US Vice President JD Vance said Saturday that Washington honoured the preliminary agreement with Iran, but stressed that “violence will be met with violence”.

This comes after Israel, Lebanon and the United States signed a trilateral framework agreement on Friday, after days of talks aimed at ending the fighting against Iran-backed Hezbollah in Beirut.

Crude Oil Prices To Stay In Focus

Analysts believe crude oil will continue to be one of the biggest drivers for Indian equities. Ponmudi noted that the recent correction in oil prices has supported India’s macroeconomic outlook and improved investor sentiment. However, he cautioned that any disruption to the improving supply outlook or renewed concerns over regional stability could reverse the recent decline in crude prices and weigh on global equity markets.

FII Flows, US Inflation And Bond Yields To Influence Sentiment

Foreign institutional investor (FII) activity will remain another closely watched factor.

Ponmudi said, “The latest US inflation data, which rose above the 4% mark for the first time in three years, has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to maintain a tighter monetary stance. As a result, movements in US Treasury yields and foreign capital flows are likely to remain important drivers of market sentiment in the week ahead.”

He said easing geopolitical concerns and improving risk sentiment helped moderate foreign fund outflows during the week, with overseas investors even turning intermittent buyers. Nevertheless, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained net sellers on a month-to-date basis in June, recording cumulative outflows of approximately Rs 45,121.78 crore.

“Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs), meanwhile, continued to provide strong support, with net inflows of around Rs 76,156.35 crore. The contrasting flow trends highlight the resilience of domestic liquidity, which has remained a key pillar supporting Indian equities amid ongoing global uncertainty,” he added.

Monsoon Progress Remains An Important Domestic Trigger

Apart from global cues, investors will closely monitor the progress of the southwest monsoon. Ponmudi said rainfall deficiencies in several agricultural regions have raised concerns over crop output, with the government preparing contingency measures to minimise disruptions. Any prolonged weakness in monsoon activity could affect rural demand, increase food inflation pressures and influence broader market sentiment.

F&O Expiry, Q1 Earnings And Auto Sales To Keep Volatility Elevated

Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart Ltd., expects the coming week to remain volatile as markets navigate multiple domestic events.

“Looking forward, the market is bracing for a highly volatile week ahead, primarily driven by the NSE June month F&O expiry on Tuesday and subsequent quarterly portfolio rebalancing by institutional investors,” Meena said.

He added that investors will also pivot toward the upcoming Q1 earnings season, with initial quarterly corporate updates slated for the first few days of July, followed closely by the release of monthly auto sales numbers on July 1st. Beyond corporate developments, the domestic trajectory will depend heavily on the progress of the monsoon, while on the global front, participants will keep a close eye on whether crude oil prices sustain their relief rally.

“Ultimately, the direction of FII flows remains the critical variable for the market’s next decisive move,” Meena said.

Nifty Faces Immediate Hurdle At 24,200

On the technical front, both analysts identified the 24,200 level as the immediate hurdle for the Nifty.

Ponmudi said the index continues to maintain a constructive technical structure after recovering from the 23,800 support zone. However, profit booking near higher levels indicates that the 24,200-24,250 zone remains a strong resistance area.

“A sustained breakout above this band would reinforce bullish momentum and could pave the way for an advance towards the 24,400 level, followed by the 24,600 region,” he said.

He added that 24,000 remains the immediate psychological support, followed by the 23,900-23,800 zone. A decisive break below 23,800 could expose the index to the 23,600 level.

Meena echoed a similar view, saying the Nifty is struggling to clear the 24,200 hurdle. “A sustained breakout above this psychological mark could trigger a fresh leg of upside towards the 24,450-24,600 zone, whereas the levels of 24,000 and 23,770 stand as immediate and vital support zones on any corrective dips,” he said.