The ongoing Iran war could trigger severe food shortages and rising prices across parts of Africa, the chief executive of the world’s largest fertiliser company has warned, as disruptions to fertiliser supplies deepen global concerns over food security.
Svein Tore Holsether, CEO of Yara International, said the conflict in West Asia risks creating a “global auction” for fertilisers, where wealthier countries outbid poorer nations for essential agricultural supplies.
“The most important thing we can do now is raise the alarm,” Holsether said, warning that fertiliser could soon become unaffordable for some of the world’s most vulnerable communities, especially in Africa.
Yara International, a Norwegian multinational operating in over 60 countries
and selling products in 140 nations, said the impact of the war was already being felt across global supply chains.
Holsether noted that although Africa has the potential to become a major food-producing region, many countries on the continent remain heavily dependent on food imports and imported fertilisers. He warned that if prices continue to surge, poorer nations may struggle to secure enough agricultural inputs ahead of key sowing seasons.
The concerns come as global fertiliser markets face mounting disruption following the conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel. Around 35 per cent of the world’s urea supply — a crucial fertiliser ingredient — comes from Gulf countries, many of which have seen production and exports affected by the ongoing tensions.
According to Holsether, urea prices have already risen by 60 to 70 per cent since the conflict escalated at the end of February.
Financial intelligence firm S&P Global also warned that food supply chains were facing both direct and indirect pressures from rising fuel and fertiliser costs. Chris Rogers, Head of Supply Chain Research at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said countries such as Ethiopia and Kenya were particularly exposed because of their heavy reliance on fertiliser imports from the Middle East.
The war has also disrupted ammonia production, a key raw material used in nitrogen-based fertilisers. Since ammonia is highly toxic and difficult to store safely during wartime, some Gulf countries, including Qatar, have reportedly suspended production entirely.
“We are losing production every day. It will take weeks or months to restart,” Holsether said, referring to fertiliser manufacturing disruptions caused by the conflict.
The crisis comes at a particularly sensitive time for farmers in sub-Saharan Africa, where the sowing season is approaching. Apart from immediate fertiliser needs, farmers are also expected to begin building stockpiles for the 2027 crop cycle later this year.
Holsether pointed out that while the European Union has already introduced financial support measures for farmers affected by rising fuel and fertiliser prices, similar support systems are largely absent in Africa.
The EU recently announced temporary subsidy relaxations and grants of up to €50,000 for farmers dealing with additional war-related costs. However, Holsether warned that African farmers are far more vulnerable because they already face poorer soil conditions, lower fertiliser usage and weaker food reserves.
“In Europe, farming systems are more optimised, so fertiliser use can be reduced without dramatic effects,” he said. “But in Africa, farmers are already under-fertilising. That’s where I’m most worried right now.”
