Hot N Cold: From 'Unusual' Hail To 'Unseasonal' Rain, What's Behind Weather Upheaval In North India?

March 2026 started off with intense heatwave warnings, but after a week or so, thunderstorms brought much-needed relief to a sizzling North India.

It would not be incorrect to say that the weather has been volatile in the northern parts of India – from “unseasonal” rains to “unusual” hailstorms and even snow and fog in the Himalayan belt.

WHAT IS GOING ON?

This weather upheaval can be largely attributed to a series of active western disturbances (WD) originating from the Mediterranean region, which have clashed with local thermal conditions to create a complex and often contradictory climate outlook.

The primary driver is a sequence of “extra-tropical cyclones” known as western disturbances. These weather systems, which travel across South Asia from the Mediterranean,

have been particularly frequent and intense in the latter half of March.

In late March, two back-to-back active WDs migrated into the region bringing with them a surge of moisture and cold air that collided with the rising local temperatures of the Indian landmass. The intensity of these events has been heightened by a “volatile mix” of moisture incursion.

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), these disturbances have been pulling significant moisture from the Arabian Sea while simultaneously interacting with winds flowing from the Bay of Bengal. This convergence of moisture-laden air masses has provided the fuel for intense local weather events, including the severe hailstorms recently witnessed in the agricultural heartlands of Punjab and Haryana.

IS THIS A WINTER RESURGENCE?

The impact on North India has been nothing short of transformative, with many regions experiencing “January-like” conditions in the plains.

While March typically sees the mercury steadily climb, it has been defined by “wild swings” in temperature this year. During wet spells triggered by the WDs, temperatures have plunged by as much as 4°C to 6°C, only to rise sharply once the system passes creating an unstable cycle that feeds the energy required for further thunderstorms and gusty winds.

In Delhi-NCR, this manifested in a way rarely seen so late in the season: dense fog. Clear night skies following rainfall, combined with leftover moisture and urban pollutants, triggered significant fog events mid-month prompting authorities to issue yellow alerts.

The Himalayan regions of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand have faced heavy snow and rain, leading to flooding in Baramulla and necessitating rescue operations. The plains have not been spared, recording significant rainfall in Hisar (7.8 mm) and Ferozepur, while Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh have battled a combination of dust storms and scattered thunderstorms that have posed a direct threat to standing crops.

WHAT DO THE EXPERTS SAY?

The scale of this weather activity was confirmed by the IMD. Explaining the current trends, weather scientist Akhil Shrivastava said “a large-scale thunderstorm activity is currently being witnessed across India”.

Shrivastava, however, said this cooling is often temporary noting that “temperatures are expected to begin rising again” shortly after these wet spells subside.

To mitigate the risks associated with these fast-moving systems, the IMD has issued an ‘orange alert’ for several regions, including eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, and parts of West Bengal. These areas are bracing for thunderstorms and gusty winds that could reach speeds of 60 to 70 kmph.

COLD TO BE FOLLOWED BY HOT?

The IMD’s long-term forecast showed that there is, however, a harsher reality for the coming months. In a striking contrast to the current wet spells, it warned that parts of east, central, and northwest India, as well as the southeast Peninsula, are likely to see more heatwave days than usual between April and June.

During this period, above-normal maximum temperatures are expected across most of east and northeast India, as well as eastern parts of central India. Even the nights are expected to offer little relief.

“During the hot season (April-May-June), above-normal minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country,” the IMD stated.

Specifically for April, the outlook remains complicated. While many parts may see normal to below-normal maximum temperatures due to the frequent wet spells, the IMD expects “above-normal maximum temperatures… over many parts of east and northeast India and some parts of northwest India and southern peninsular India during the month”.

The weather instability extends beyond the north. The IMD has forecast intensified activity in eastern and central India, with sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim expected to witness widespread rainfall and isolated thundersqualls with wind speeds reaching up to 80 kmph.

Even the southern states, including Keralam and coastal Karnataka, are expected to receive scattered rainfall though these regions will likely continue to experience hot and humid conditions. For April, rainfall averaged over the entire country is most likely to be above normal.

While this may provide temporary respite from the heat, the frequent alternation between high-velocity winds, hailstorms, and intense heat represents a significant challenge.

Authorities have issued multiple weather alerts to prepare various sectors: farmers have been advised to monitor the unsettled patterns as a fresh western disturbance is expected to impact the northwest between April 2 and 4, potentially bringing more crop-damaging hail.

Travellers and residents are urged to remain vigilant as the transition into the summer continues to be defined by atmospheric upheaval and unpredictable climate shifts.

(With agency inputs)