5 Times Axis My India Shocked Everyone With Bold Exit Polls Predictions And Got It Right

Exit poll projections for all five states were released after voting concluded in the West Bengal Assembly election, but one forecast stood out for its surprise factor—Axis My India’s call for Tamil Nadu.

The agency, led by Pradeep Gupta, predicted a dramatic upset, projecting actor-turned-politician Joseph Vijay’s TVK to win the 2026 Tamil Nadu election with razor-thin majority. It placed the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) as the second-largest party, while forecasting a steep setback for the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam–Bharatiya Janata Party alliance (BJP).

According to projections by Axis My India, TVK is likely to emerge as the single-largest party in Tamil Nadu, winning 98–120 seats, followed by the DMK with 92–110 seats.

While

exit polls don’t always translate into actual results on counting day, they often shape public discourse and build anticipation around the final verdict.

1% Gap To Decide Tamil Nadu’s Fate? Exit Poll Gives Razor-Thin Lead To AIADMK+ Over DMK+

Notably, there have been several instances in the past where Axis My India made bold projections—and went on to get them right. Following are five such examples:

1. 2019 Lok Sabha

In 2019, most pollsters suggested the BJP would struggle to reach a majority on its own due to the Mahagathbandhan in UP. Axis My India was the only agency to boldly predict a 339–365 seat win for the NDA, with the BJP comfortably crossing 300 on its own.

The NDA finished with 353 seats (BJP alone won 303 seats), almost exactly in the centre of the Axis range.

2. 2022 Punjab Election

While most pollsters predicted a lead for AAP or a hung assembly, Axis My India predicted a massive sweep for AAP with 76–90 seats. At the time, such a huge majority in a multi-cornered contest was viewed with scepticism. The AAP won 92 seats, decimating both the Congress and the Akali Dal.

3. 2023 Madhya Pradesh

Most agencies predicted a narrow Congress win or a neck-and-neck fight due to 18 years of anti-incumbency against Shivraj Singh Chouhan in Madhya Pradesh. But Axis My India predicted a massive sweep for the BJP with 140–162 seats. The BJP won 163 seats, a result that left other pollsters stunned.

4. 2024 Maharashtra

Following a disappointing performance by the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra, most analysts had predicted that the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) would gain the upper hand in the Assembly polls.

Defying this consensus, Axis My India projected a strong comeback for the ruling MahaYuti alliance, estimating a sweeping 178–200 seats. The final results went even further than the prediction. The MahaYuti secured a massive 235 seats, turning the outcome into an even bigger landslide than what the poll had anticipated.

5. 2025 Delhi Election

In the February 2025 Delhi elections, almost all major exit polls predicted a close fight or a narrow win for AAP. Axis My India was the significant outlier, projecting a decisive BJP victory with 45–55 seats. The BJP won 48 seats, ending Arvind Kejriwal’s decade-long streak in the capital.