The recent closure of the Torkham border crossing by Afghanistan has left Pakistan’s diplomatic and economic sectors in shock. This incident stands out among the significant factors affecting their mutual relations over the past several years.
The closure has halted both local and international trade through one of South Asia’s busiest border points, indicating a regional trade and political power shift from Pakistan to Afghanistan.
Economic Impact on Pakistan
The situation in Torkham is likely to cause serious economic problems for Pakistan. Afghanistan has been a key market for Pakistan’s exports for at least three years, purchasing goods worth nearly 2 billion dollars annually, including foodstuffs, building materials, medicines, and other essentials. If the closure persists,
the transportation of these goods will stop, and alternative routes will be much more expensive.
Another issue is the loss of transit revenue. Pakistan earns significant money by allowing the movement of goods to Afghanistan through its ports, particularly Karachi. Halting transit trade will exacerbate Pakistan’s challenging economic situation.
Moreover, the border closure hinders Pakistan from achieving its broader regional trade goals. Most goods bound for Central Asia and even Europe are transported through Afghanistan and Torkham. Continued border closures will cost the industry billions of dollars in logistics and trade fees.
Additionally, the human cost is substantial. Truck drivers, small traders, and logistics workers in the border trade sectors are now facing joblessness and income instability.
Beyond trade, the closure could impact the future of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The Waziristan district areas near the Afghan border, where the corridor is located, are already insecure due to prevailing security conditions. Pakistan and China have engaged Afghanistan in joining or supporting CPEC, but political tensions and border disputes hinder this cooperation. Analysts warn that ongoing instability and mistrust may jeopardise one of Pakistan’s most vital economic projects.
Impact on Afghanistan
Afghanistan may face short-term difficulties in obtaining essential items like food and medicines. However, the overall economic impact will not be significant. Kabul has, in recent years, reduced its dependence on Pakistan by diversifying trade partners and making deals with Iran, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Russia, and China. This network helps the Afghan market manage border closures without coming to a complete standstill.
Afghan merchants are also adapting to the recent border closure. Vegetables and fruits initially meant for export to Pakistan are now being directed to local markets in Nangarhar and nearby districts.
Nangarhar deputy governor M Walvi Azizullah Mustafa met traders at the fruit market in Jalalabad City, assuring them of creating a robust market both domestically and internationally. He mentioned that officials are working to facilitate the export of domestic fruits and vegetables to other countries and urged citizens, especially the wealthy, to support traders and businessmen.
For many years, Afghan authorities have accused Pakistan of hindering their exports during peak seasons, particularly targeting agriculture to exert economic and political pressure, exemplifying its anti-Afghan economic policy and trade restrictions.
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