Lucknow Super Giants (LSG) suffered their seventh loss of the IPL 2026 season to the Mumbai Indians (the only team that was on level with them on wins before the match) at the Wankhede Stadium on Monday.
LSG posted 228/5 after Nicholas Pooran’s explosive 63 off 21 balls and Mitchell Marsh’s 44, though Rishabh Pant struggled again. In reply, MI dominated from the start as Rohit Sharma (84 off 44) and Ryan Rickelton (83 off 32) put on 143 for the opening wicket, guiding the chase comfortably in 18.4 overs to seal a six-wicket win.
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After the match, captain Rishabh Pant said his side would need a lot of ‘luck’ to have a shot at the top-four spot. He’s not wrong, as LSG are now extremely dependent
on the other nine teams for it.
However, on the bright side, LSG’s position in the table — 9 matches, 2 wins, and 7 losses — reads exactly like MI’s before this match. And as MI can still qualify, so can LSG.
LSG’s path to the top-4
First, LSG has absolutely no room for error. They must win every single one of their five remaining matches.
Looking at the schedule, they have to beat Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) on May 7, Chennai Super Kings (CSK) twice (on May 10 and May 15), Rajasthan Royals (RR) on May 19, and Punjab Kings (PBKS) on May 23. Winning all five of these games will give them 10 more points, allowing them to finish the season with exactly 14 points.
Second, they need the top of the points table to clear out. They have to hope that three strong teams—like PBKS, Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH), and RR—win most of their remaining games. This will push those three teams to 16 points or higher, safely locking them into the top three playoff spots.
Third, the teams currently sitting at 12 points, which are RCB and Gujarat Titans (GT), need to stop winning. LSG directly helps themselves by beating RCB in their upcoming match. Beyond that, RCB and GT must lose almost all of their other games so neither team finishes with more than 14 points.
Fourth, the teams in the middle of the table, like CSK, Delhi Capitals (DC), and Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR), cannot go on winning streaks. LSG playing and beating CSK twice is a huge advantage here, as it directly stops CSK from gaining points. DC and KKR must also lose enough of their matches against other teams to make sure they also stay at 14 points or below.
If this exact series of events happens, LSG will be tied for the fourth and final playoff spot at exactly 14 points. Because their current Net Run Rate is a very low -1.106, they must win their last five games by massive margins to win the final tiebreaker and advance to the playoffs.
