As voting ends for the second phase of West Bengal elections 2026 this evening, all eyes will be on the exit poll results for the four states – Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Assam – and one Union Territory – Puducherry. The exit poll predictions for Assembly elections 2026 will be out by 6.30 pm on Wednesday, April 29.
Read More: When Are Exit Polls Released & Why Do They Wait For Polling To Finish? What Rules Say
Exit polls in India have sometimes accurately captured election outcomes. However, at several other instances, post-poll survey numbers have also gone wrong, with predictions not even close to the actual results.
Consider the misses: In 2004 Lok Sabha polls, exit polls pegged NDA at 240-278 seats, only for the actual wins to be
187. The 2017 Uttar Pradesh assembly saw predictions of a hung house (BJP: 161-210 seats) shattered by BJP’s landslide 312/403. More recently, 2024 Haryana exit polls forecast a Congress majority (48 seats in 90-seat house), but BJP clinched 48. These errors, often from sampling biases or silent voters, underscore exit polls’ fallibility.
On the flip side, successes shine bright. The 2014 Lok Sabha polls nailed NDA’s dominance (predicted 280-300; actual 336), while 2019 foresaw their 353 seats. In 2020 Delhi (AAP: 50-60 predicted; 62 actual) and 2025 Delhi (BJP: 44 predicted; 48 actual), accuracy prevailed. State wins like 2016 West Bengal (TMC: 210-230; actual 211) further prove reliability when psephologists align.
10 Times Exit Polls Were A Blunder
Exit polls in Indian elections have shown significant deviations from actual results in these 10 cases:
| Election | Exit Poll Prediction | Actual Election Results |
|---|---|---|
| 2004 Lok Sabha | NDA: 240–278 seats; UPA: 170–205 seats | NDA: 187 seats; UPA: 219 seats |
| 2009 Lok Sabha | UPA: 185–205 seats; NDA: 185 seats (avg.) | UPA: 262 seats; NDA: 159 seats |
| 2015 Bihar Assembly (243 seats) | Grand Alliance: 122 seats; NDA: 114 seats (avg.) | Grand Alliance: 178 seats; NDA: 58 seats |
| 2015 Delhi Assembly (70 seats) | AAP: 32–53 seats; BJP: 15–41 seats (avg. 36) | AAP: 67 seats; BJP: 3 seats |
| 2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly (403 seats) | BJP: 161–210 seats; SP-Cong: 110–169 seats (hung house predicted) | BJP: 312 seats; SP-Cong: 69 seats |
| 2022 Punjab Assembly (117 seats) | AAP: 70 seats; Congress: 22 seats (Times Now) | AAP: 92 seats; Congress: 18 seats |
| 2023 Chhattisgarh Assembly (90 seats) | Congress majority predicted (50+ seats) | BJP: 54 seats; Congress: 35 seats |
| 2024 Haryana Assembly (90 seats) | Congress: majority (48+ seats predicted by most) | BJP: 48 seats; Congress: 37 seats |
| 2024 Lok Sabha | NDA: 350–400+ seats; INDIA: <200 seats | NDA: 293 seats; INDIA: 234 seats |
| 2024 Jharkhand Assembly (81 seats) | NDA: 42 seats; INDIA: 35 seats (neck-and-neck) | INDIA: 50 seats; NDA: 24 seats |
10 Times Exit Polls Got It Right
Exit polls have also sometimes been on point election outcomes, particularly in direction and margins. Here are 10 such instances:
| Election | Exit Poll Prediction | Actual Election Results |
|---|---|---|
| 2014 Lok Sabha (543 seats) | NDA: 280–300 seats; BJP: 270 | NDA: 336 seats; BJP: 282 |
| 2019 Lok Sabha (543 seats) | NDA: 300–350 seats; BJP: 290 | NDA: 353 seats; BJP: 303 |
| 2020 Delhi Assembly (70 seats) | AAP: 50–60 seats | AAP: 62 seats; BJP: 8 |
| 2025 Delhi Assembly (90 seats) | BJP: 44 seats; AAP: 26 | BJP: 48 seats; AAP: 22 |
| 1998 Lok Sabha (543 seats) | BJP-led: 260 seats | BJP+allies: 254 seats |
| 1999 Lok Sabha (543 seats) | NDA: 280 seats | NDA: 303 seats |
| 2006 Kerala Assembly (140 seats) | LDF: 95–105 seats | LDF: 99 seats |
| 2011 Tamil Nadu Assembly (234 seats) | AIADMK+: 140–160 seats | AIADMK+: 150 seats |
| 2016 Tamil Nadu Assembly (234 seats) | AIADMK: 130–150 seats | AIADMK: 136 seats |
| 2016 West Bengal Assembly (294 seats) | TMC: 210–230 seats | TMC: 211 seats |
Tonight’s exit polls for Bengal’s 294 seats, Assam’s 126, Kerala’s 140, and Tamil Nadu’s 234 are set to put this mixed bag to the test once more. Will they hit the bulls eye or flop spectacularly? That will be clear on Monday, May 4, when the actual Assembly election results are declared.
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