In the muddy puddle of pre-poll alliances, it is tough to tell intent from posturing. Often, it is posturing coming across as intent. In Tamil Nadu, the differences are subtler, given the numerous state-level parties that have switched allegiances countless times over nearly six decades of dominance by the two Dravidian parties, the DMK and the AIADMK.
In many ways, the state of play in Tamil Nadu has resembled a duopoly between the arch-rivals mentioned above. The only uncertainty in every election – be it Parliamentary or State Assembly – is which way the regional and national parties go. Nevertheless, there have been times when the regionals banded together to cobble together a non-Dravidian Third Front, but they have only ended up strengthening
the hand of the stronger Dravidian party, the most recent being the People Welfare Front (PWF) of the May 2016 election that led to J Jayalalithaa coming to power for a rare second time.
In this situation, rises the Thamizhaga Vetri Kazhagam, the new entrant led by actor-turned-politician Vijay. The party had garnered high hopes of tying up with the Indian National Congress. For a moment, the speculation of the Congress breaking away from the DMK and exploring a tie-up with Vijay seemed real – given a recent flare-up involving a DMK district secretary taking potshots at Congress MPs in the state. However, DMK Parliamentarian Kanimozhi’s trip to Delhi and amiable meeting with Rahul Gandhi laid to rest the theories of a break-up. And, thus, the expectations of a TVK-Congress alliance have dimmed, and Vijay is set to emerge as a reluctant corner, reluctant because his preference appears to have been an alliance with the Congress.
As we head closer to the elections, the other corners have emerged too: talks between other regional parties such as the PMK and DMDK have begun. The NDA alliance looks stitched together with TTV Dhinakaran burying the hatchet with AIADMK leader Edappadi Palaniswami and entering the fold. The DMK alliance appears solid as ever, with the VCK and Congress flanking the Dravidian parties and the Communist parties in tow. Tamil Nationalist party Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK) has been going solo, steadily rising in vote share (8.22 per cent in the Parliamentary Elections of 2024) but they haven’t managed an MLA yet.
Viewing the Tamil Nadu alliances objectively, it is difficult to categorise Vijay’s party as a third alternative, given that this is an untested force. However, what is clear is that the Dravidian duopoly is continually tested by new entrants presenting themselves as the change. But they have all either been co-opted into the Dravidian edifice or have faced slow but steady erasure, the only exception being the NTK, which leads to the question: Is the Dravidian system an unstoppable force or is the electorate reluctant to look at alternatives?
