High-Speed Drifting SpaceX Rocket To Collide With Moon: All You Need To Know

A drifting SpaceX rocket stage is expected to crash into the moon on Wednesday after spending more than a year drifting through space following the launch of two lunar landers.

The impact is not planned and will leave a crater on the lunar surface while throwing up dust and debris. Scientists and amateur astronomers are closely watching the event, hoping to study its effects.

Space tracking analyst Bill Gray estimates the rocket will strike the moon at around 5,400 mph (8,700 kph), roughly seven times the speed of sound. The collision is projected to occur near Einstein Crater on the moon’s sunlit western edge. Observers in eastern parts of the United States and Canada, along with much of South America, are expected to have the best chance of viewing

the aftermath.

Although researchers are not alarmed by this particular impact, they say it draws attention to the increasing amount of debris in space.

“Things are getting crowded up there,” said Gray, who plans to view the aftermath from New Brunswick, Canada.

Experts noted that the crash was never part of SpaceX’s plans. According to them, the upper stage could have been directed into an orbit around the sun, preventing a lunar collision.

The incident will mark only the second known case of a defunct rocket accidentally striking the moon. In 2022, a Chinese rocket fragment created two craters on the moon’s far side.

Scientists consider themselves fortunate that this collision will occur on the moon’s Earth-facing side. The impact is expected to release energy comparable to three tons of TNT.

Experts believe the flash generated by the collision will last less than a second and may be too faint to detect. However, the plume of material thrown into space could extend several kilometres and remain visible through telescopes for several minutes.

“The gravity on the moon is low, and there is no wind to blow the dust away,” said Los Alamos National Laboratory’s Benjamin Fernando, who’s encouraging observations by professionals and amateurs alike.

“Part of the reason for our interest in this event is to figure out how much of a hazard debris impacts pose to future astronauts,” he added in an email.

Fernando estimates the impact will create a crater about 90 feet wide and 16 feet deep (27 meters across and 5 meters deep). While too small to be seen from Earth, it should be visible in images captured by lunar spacecraft.

NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and South Korea’s Danuri lunar orbiter are expected to photograph the site before and after the impact. According to Fernando and his colleagues, Danuri will pass within a few kilometres of the rocket approximately two minutes before it hits the moon.

The rocket segment, measuring about 40 feet (12 meters) in length and weighing nearly 10,000 pounds (4,500 kilograms), launched two private lunar landers on January 15, 2025.

One of those spacecraft, Firefly Aerospace’s Blue Ghost, achieved the first fully successful private moon landing. The second lander, operated by Japan-based ispace, crashed during its mission.

Researchers say observations of the collision could provide valuable insights because natural impacts from meteoroids often occur without warning. Human-made impacts, by contrast, can be tracked and studied in advance.

During the Apollo era, NASA deliberately crashed rocket stages and lunar modules into the moon to collect seismic data. In 2009, the agency also sent its LCROSS spacecraft and upper stage into the lunar south pole region in an effort to detect ice.

As interest in lunar exploration grows, scientists argue that better tracking of space debris and improved traffic management will become increasingly important before more robotic missions and human crews arrive.

The United States and China are both preparing for future crewed lunar missions. Meanwhile, SpaceX and Blue Origin are competing to provide the lunar lander for NASA’s Artemis IV mission, which will follow the historic Apollo moonwalks carried out by 12 astronauts.

“This impact will not be a problem,” retired astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell said in an email. “But in a future where there are long-term bases on the moon, similar impacts would be an issue, and we need not leave rocket stages in chaotic orbits of this kind.”

(With inputs from AP)