2025 Nobel Peace Prize Winner Was Illegally Leaked Before Announcement, Says Institute

The Norwegian Nobel Institute on Friday confirmed that the identity of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner was illegally leaked hours before the official announcement, raising concerns about the security of the selection process. The institute said it could not rule out the involvement of a state actor.

The issue came to light on the night of October 9 to 10, when betting odds on prediction platform Polymarket shifted sharply in favour of Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado. Her chances of winning jumped from 3.75 percent to nearly 73 percent within less than two hours, shortly before she was formally announced as the laureate.

Machado had not been widely tipped by experts or media outlets as a leading contender, prompting the Nobel

Institute to launch an internal investigation.

Institute spokesman Erik Aasheim said the betting activity showed that some individuals had gained access to confidential information.

“Given that several actors placed significant money on prediction market websites hours ahead of the announcement, we can say with certainty that there were actors who had been able to illegally acquire information on this year’s decision,” Aasheim told news agency AFP.

He added that investigators had not been able to determine how the leak occurred, who was responsible, or whether the source was a private individual or a state actor.

The institute said it had identified weaknesses in its IT systems and had taken steps to address them. Director Kristian Berg Harpviken told Norwegian newspaper Verdens Gang that it was “not unreasonable” to consider the possibility of state involvement.

Machado, 58, was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for what the committee called as her tireless efforts to promote democratic rights in Venezuela and her struggle for a peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy. She was barred from running in Venezuela’s 2024 presidential election.

In an unusual move, Machado later dedicated her prize to US President Donald Trump and handed him the Nobel medal during a visit to the White House in mid-January.

The Nobel Committee subsequently clarified that the prize remains inseparable from the laureate, regardless of who holds the medal.

(With inputs from AFP)