Axis My India may not release its exit poll projections for West Bengal’s final phase of Assembly elections if it fails to secure a sufficiently representative sample, the organisation’s founder Pradeep Gupta said in an interview, according to an NDTV report.
The development comes amid unusually high voter turnout in the state and sharply divergent projections from various agencies after the initial phases of polling.
Gupta was quoted as saying that his team faced challenges in gathering responses on the ground.
“See, the method of Axis My India is talking to people face to face. And when we tried to talk after the first phase, about 60-70 per cent of the people had their lips sealed. They were not even ready to say yes or no,” he said.
He added
that the reluctance among voters to engage has significantly constrained the survey’s reliability.
“No one is ready to talk to anyone in the context of elections. So, as long as our sample is not representative, on the basis of a 20-30 per cent sample, we do not believe it is right to predict any number,” Gupta said.
‘POSSIBILITY’ OF NO RELEASE, SAYS GUPTA
Gupta reiterated that there remains a “possibility” that Axis My India may ultimately choose not to release its West Bengal projections.
“I don’t have any opinion, because when no one is speaking, my boundaries are cut short,” he said, emphasising the limitations imposed by low response rates.
He also pointed to the extensive effort invested by his team, noting that a decision to withhold projections would be disappointing.
“It is my habit to try my best. We have tried and sweated it out for all these days. It would be a matter of disappointment for us too if we couldn’t predict it, after all the effort and sweat we’ve been putting in,” Gupta added.
According to the report, Axis My India plans to make another attempt after voting concludes, in the hope that voters may be more willing to share their choices once polling is over.
RECORD-BREAKING TURNOUT IN WEST BENGAL
The uncertainty around exit poll projections comes even as West Bengal recorded unprecedented voter participation in the two-phase Assembly elections.
The Election Commission said the combined turnout stood at 92.47 per cent, the highest in the state since Independence.
Polling in Phase I on April 23 saw a turnout of 93.19 per cent, while Phase II recorded 91.66 per cent participation as of 7.45 pm.
“The combined poll percentage over the two phases stands at 92.47 per cent,” the poll watchdog said.
Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar lauded the electorate, stating, “For the highest ever percentage of polling in West Bengal since Independence, the EC salutes each voter of the state.”
Women voters slightly outnumbered men in participation. In Phase II, 92.28 per cent of women cast their votes compared to 91.07 per cent of men.
Similarly, in Phase I, women’s turnout stood at 92.69 per cent against 90.92 per cent for men.
EXIT POLLS SIGNAL TIGHT CONTEST
Despite Axis My India’s hesitation, exit polls conducted after the initial phases suggest a closely fought battle in West Bengal.
Several agencies have projected a neck-and-neck contest between the ruling Trinamool Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party, with some hinting at a possible shift in power.
Surveys by P-MARQ, Matrize, and Chanakya Strategies indicate the BJP may secure a strong tally, with projections ranging between 146 and 175 seats in some estimates.
Meanwhile, others like People’s Pulse and Janmat place the Trinamool Congress ahead, projecting comfortable majorities in certain scenarios.
Some pollsters, including JV, have even suggested the possibility of a hung Assembly, reflecting the wide divergence in projections.
With a voter base of 6.81 crore in West Bengal and record turnout levels, the stakes remain high.
Counting of votes for all five poll-bound states, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, and Assam, is scheduled for May 4.
