GIFT Nifty Today: Flat Start Seen For Sensex, Nifty As Crude Oil, West Asia Tensions Weigh

GIFT Nifty Today, September 21: The domestic equity markets are likely to open on a flat note on Monday, with the GIFT Nifty indicating a muted start amid mixed global cues, elevated crude oil prices and persistent geopolitical tensions in West Asia.

The GIFT Nifty was trading at 23,340.5, down 20.5 points or 0.09%, as of 7:55 am.

“Indian equity markets are likely to open on a flat note, with GIFT Nifty holding above 23,300 against the Nifty 50’s previous close of 23,346, pointing to a largely unchanged start for domestic equities,” said Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, a Sebi-registered online trading and wealth-tech firm.

Global markets offered a broadly supportive backdrop, with Asian equities trading higher in early deals. South Korea’s KOSPI

gained more than 1%, while MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.8%. Japan’s Nikkei was closed for a market holiday, although its futures gained 0.5%.

US equity futures were also firm, with S&P 500 futures rising 0.4% and Nasdaq futures gaining 0.6%. European futures were similarly higher.

However, crude oil prices remain a key variable for Indian markets. WTI crude was around $95 a barrel, while Brent remained above $100, keeping pressure on energy costs despite a recent easing in prices.

“WTI crude has eased to around the $95-per-barrel mark, while Brent remains above $100, keeping energy costs elevated despite the recent pullback,” Ponmudi said.

Oil prices eased on Monday amid signs that more crude was finding its way out of the West Asia despite the ongoing conflict. Brent crude fell 2.1% to $101.63 a barrel, while US crude declined 2.1% to $98.15 in the previous session.

US-Iran tensions in focus

Geopolitical developments are likely to remain a major driver of market sentiment. Tehran has threatened retaliation against the US and its allies in the event of further military action, keeping the risks to regional energy supplies in focus.

“Geopolitical risks, however, remain a key source of uncertainty.” Ponmudi said. “Any renewed escalation could quickly trigger volatility across crude oil, currencies and global equities.”

The potential impact of US tariff measures targeting major buyers of Russian oil is another factor being watched by investors. India has warned that such measures could strain bilateral ties, while any disruption to Russian oil flows could add to uncertainty in global energy markets.

“The US tariff measures targeting major buyers of Russian oil also remain an important risk for global trade and energy markets,” Ponmudi said.

He added that any escalation on the tariff front could affect crude flows, energy prices and sentiment towards emerging markets.

Fed, bond yields add to global risks

Investors are also assessing the implications of a more hawkish outlook from the US Federal Reserve. US two-year Treasury yields rose sharply in recent weeks, while markets have increased bets on another rate hike in October following the Fed’s latest guidance.

Bank of America analysts said in a note that “tightening cycles are generally front-loaded, and the Fed almost never stops after one hike”, while retaining their call for two more rate hikes, in October and December.

Higher global bond yields could keep foreign investor flows and emerging-market currencies under pressure, adding another layer of uncertainty for Indian equities.

What to watch for Indian markets

For domestic equities, the immediate focus is likely to remain on crude oil prices, developments in West Asia, global bond yields and foreign institutional flows.

“The domestic backdrop remains cautiously stable, with the recent easing in crude prices providing some relief. However, developments in the Middle East and movements in energy prices are likely to remain the key factors shaping investor sentiment through the session,” Ponmudi said.