Tamil Nadu Elections 2026: C-VOTER Opinion Poll Says AIADMK, DMK Locked In Tight Contest

The countdown to the Tamil Nadu Assembly Election has begun, with the state set to undergo polls in a single phase on April 23. Vote counting is scheduled for May 4, 2026, according to the Election Commission of India (ECI).

The ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), under the leadership of Chief Minister MK Stalin, is eyeing a consecutive term by highlighting its governance record and welfare-driven policies.

The AIADMK is striving to regain power, joining hands with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in a bid to consolidate opposition votes.

Though traditionally weaker in Tamil Nadu, the BJP is trying to expand its ground in the state by focusing on urban voters and strategic alliances.

Actor-turned-politician Vijay is looking to make his electoral

debut with his party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK). While Vijay enjoys an enormous fanbase in the southern state, it still remains uncertain how much influence his popularity will translate into actual votes in the elections.

And the question is — Will the DMK retain power, or will anti-incumbency prevail?

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What Does Opinion Poll Say? 

According to C-VOTER the contest in Tamil Nadu remains tight as the ruling DMK is ahead with 41 per cent, closely followed by AIADMK at 38 per cent.

CNN-News18’s own Vote Tracker opinion poll, conducted by VoteVibe and released on April 6, showed K Palaniswami’s AIADMK leading with 41 per cent votes. Stalin’s DMK, on the other hand, appeared to be lagging behind with 39 per cent votes.

In terms of seat sharing, the AIAMK is projected to win 130-140 seats, while the DMK is likely to secure 90-100 seats. Vijay’s TVK, meanwhile, is projected to win 2-6 seats.

In the race for the Chief Minister’s post, DMK’s Stalin and AIADMK’s Palaniswami are locked in a tight contest, each commanding 39% of voter support, setting the stage for a nail-biting showdown.

Collectively, the DMK-led alliance is projected to win 104-114 seats, a sharp drop from the 2021 assembly elections in Tamil Nadu.

The AIADMK-led NDA, on the other hand, is ahead with 115-125 seats.