Mumbai Indians (MI) bought themselves a lifeline in the IPL 2026 playoff race by beating the Lucknow Super Giants (LSG) by six wickets at the Wankhede Stadium on Monday (May 4). This win means they still have the chance to finish the league stage at 14 points — which has been enough to qualify for the top four before.
Nicholas Pooran’s explosive 63 off 21 balls lifted LSG to 228/5, with support from Mitchell Marsh (44), but it wasn’t enough to prevent their slide to the bottom. Rohit Sharma (84 off 44) and Ryan Rickelton (83 off 32) powered the chase with a 143-run opening stand, before Naman Dhir and Will Jacks finished it in 18.4 overs.
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However, the five-time champions need to make sure
they don’t get carried away. LSG have been objectively the weakest team this season and MI’s hard journey is only getting started.
MI’s path to IPL 2026 top-four qualification
To have a shot at the top four, Mumbai must win all four of their remaining games: against Royal Challengers Bengaluru on May 10, Punjab Kings on May 14, Kolkata Knight Riders on May 20, and Rajasthan Royals on May 24. Winning every single one of these guarantees Mumbai finishes with exactly 14 points.
Second, MI need three teams to safely take the top three playoff spots so they are out of the way. For instance, PBKS, Sunrisers Hyderabad, and RR can keep playing well, win most of their upcoming games, and finish with 16 points or more.
Third, the main roadblocks are RCB and Gujarat Titans, who both already have 12 points. MI need them to stall.
RCB plays five more games. Since we already established Mumbai needs to beat them, RCB must lose three of their other four games (which are against LSG, KKR, PBKS, and SRH). For MI’s sake, the defending champions can only win one more match the rest of the season to finish at 14 points.
GT play four more games. They must also lose three of those games (which are against RR, SRH, and Chennai Super Kings) and only win one match, which also freezes them at 14 points.
Finally, the remaining teams, CSK, Delhi Capitals, KKR, and LSG, cannot go on winning streaks. Because they play each other a lot in the remaining schedule, they will naturally give each other losses. As long as none of these teams win more than three of their remaining matches, they will not pass 14 points.
If this exact series of events happens, Mumbai will be tied for the final playoff spot at exactly 14 points. To advance to the playoffs, their final Net Run Rate just needs to be higher than the other teams tied at 14.
