India's GDP Growth Likely To Moderate To 6.9% In 2026, Rise To 7.3% In 2027: ADB

India’s economic growth is likely to moderate to 6.9% in 2026 from 7.6% in the previous year, before recovering to 7.3% in 2027, the Asian Development Bank said in its latest Asian Development Outlook (ADO) April 2026.

The multilateral lender attributed the near-term slowdown to a challenging external environment, even as domestic consumption remains resilient.

Across developing Asia and the Pacific, growth is projected to slow to 5.1% in both 2026 and 2027, compared with 5.4% last year, as geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainty continue to weigh on the region.

The ADB identified the ongoing conflict in West Asia as the key risk to the outlook, warning that a prolonged escalation could drive up energy and food prices, disrupt shipping routes

and tighten financial conditions globally.

The projections are based on assumptions finalised on March 10 under an early stabilisation scenario. However, the report noted that recent developments increase the likelihood of prolonged disruptions.

Despite these risks, the region is entering this phase from a position of relative strength, supported by firm domestic demand, stable labour markets and higher public infrastructure spending.

ADB Chief Economist Albert Park said governments must maintain sound macroeconomic policies and extend targeted support to vulnerable households to sustain growth and manage inflation risks.

Inflation across the region is expected to rise to 3.6% in 2026 and ease slightly to 3.4% in 2027, up from 3.0% last year, driven partly by higher energy costs and potential disruptions in fertiliser supplies that could lift global food prices.

Among major economies, growth in the China is projected to slow to 4.6% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027 from 5% last year, reflecting continued stress in the property sector and softer exports.

Pacific economies are expected to see the sharpest slowdown, with growth easing to 3.4% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027.

The ADB added that while oil prices may remain elevated in the near term, any easing in geopolitical tensions could help stabilise prices and provide some relief on inflation.