With the second and final phase of voting underway in West Bengal on Wednesday, attention is already shifting to exit polls—the first indicators of how the electorate may have voted.
Voting in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam and Puducherry has already concluded, with results for all five contests scheduled on May 4.
In India, the release of exit polls, which offer an early snapshot of trends before the counting day, is tightly regulated by the Election Commission (EC) to ensure they do not influence voters during ongoing polling.
As projections begin to come in later today, the 2021 Assembly elections across West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam and Puducherry provide a detailed reference point—one that shows exit polls often captured the likely winner
but varied widely in estimating seat counts.
What Happened In West Bengal In 2021?
West Bengal remains the most striking example of exit polls diverging from the final outcome.
Most exit polls suggested a closely fought contest, with several agencies split between the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Some surveys indicated that the BJP could cross the 100-seat mark, a sharp rise from its three seats and around 10.16 per cent vote share in 2016.
Axis My India projected 130–156 seats for TMC and 134–160 for BJP. Jan Ki Baat estimated 104–121 for TMC and 162–185 for BJP, while ABP-CVoter projected 152–164 for TMC and 109–121 for BJP.
News 24–Today’s Chanakya projected 180 seats for TMC, while multiple surveys showed both parties within reach of a majority.
The final result was not close. In the 294-member Assembly, the TMC won 215 seats, while the BJP secured 77.
How Accurate Were Exit Polls In Tamil Nadu?
In Tamil Nadu, exit polls were far more aligned in identifying the winning alliance.
Most surveys placed the DMK-led alliance above 160 seats in the 234-member Assembly. India Today-Axis My India projected 175–195 seats for DMK+ and 38–54 for AIADMK+, while Today’s Chanakya estimated 164–186 for DMK+ and 46–68 for AIADMK+. Jan Ki Baat/CNX projected 160–170 for DMK+ and 56–68 for AIADMK+.
The DMK-led alliance eventually won 159 seats, with the DMK itself securing 133, while the AIADMK alliance finished with 75 seats.
Did Kerala Follow Exit Poll Trends?
Kerala’s 2021 verdict broke a four-decade pattern of alternating governments, and exit polls broadly anticipated this shift.
Some surveys projected the Left Democratic Front (LDF) crossing the 100-seat mark. Axis My India projected 104–120 seats for LDF and 20–36 for UDF, while CVoter estimated 71–77 for LDF and 62–68 for UDF. Republic-CNX projected 72–80 for LDF and 58–64 for UDF, and News 24–Today’s Chanakya estimated 102 seats for LDF.
The final outcome saw the LDF win 99 seats in the 140-member Assembly, with the CPI(M) securing 62, while the UDF won 41.
What Did Exit Polls Indicate In Assam?
In Assam, exit polls largely pointed towards the BJP-led alliance retaining power.
Most surveys placed the BJP around or above the majority mark of 63 seats in the 126-member Assembly. Axis My India projected 75–85 seats for NDA and 40–50 for Congress+, while Republic-CNX estimated 74–84 for NDA. CVoter projected 58–71 for NDA and 53–66 for Congress+.
The NDA went on to win 75 seats, falling within the projected ranges.
What About Puducherry?
In Puducherry, exit polls indicated a change in government. Most surveys showed the NDA ahead.
Axis My India projected 20–24 seats for NDA and 6–10 for UPA, while CVoter estimated 19–23 for NDA and 6–10 for UPA in the 30-member Assembly.
The final result saw the NDA form the government with 16 seats.
What Do 2021 Trends Suggest Ahead Of Today’s Exit Polls?
The 2021 results show that exit polls in India often indicate the likely winner, but the accuracy of seat projections varies across states and agencies. The variation is sharper in closely contested elections, where estimates differ widely.
As exit poll numbers are released later today, they will offer an early indication of trends. The final outcome, however, will only be confirmed on counting day.
Where To Track Exit Polls?
Stay on top of every development about the Exit Poll Results 2026 with real-time updates across CNN-News18. Tune in to CNN-News18 for live coverage, expert insights, and in-depth analysis, or follow the latest updates, key highlights, and breaking news on our social media channels and News18.com.
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