Gold Prices Hit Record High: What's Fuelling The Surge And Can This Rally Continue?

Gold Price Prediction 2025: Gold prices on Monday jumped by nearly 1,450 to touch a fresh record of Rs 1,19,560 on the MCX. The surge comes amid safe-haven buying amid the prolonged US government shutdown

and growing bets on further Federal Reserve rate cuts.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures for December delivery appreciated by Rs 1,447, or 1.22 per cent, to a lifetime high of Rs 1,19,560 per 10 grams. Extending gains for the seventh consecutive session, the February 2026 contract advanced Rs 1,512, or 1.27 per cent, to scale a record Rs 1,20,845 per 10 grams.

Last week, the yellow metal futures had surged Rs 3,222 per 10 grams or 2.8 per cent.

Gold Prices Hit Record High: Why Is Gold Price Increasing?

Analysts said that gold and silver prices have been rising for the past few months due to safe-haven buying amid global uncertainties and US Fed rate cut expectations.

Renisha Chainani, head-research at Augmont, said, “2025 has been the year of uncertainties. It started with political uncertainty, then tariff uncertainty, then geopolitical uncertainty, then rate cut uncertainty and now US shutdown uncertainty. All these uncertainties have supported bullion prices to rise phenomenally this year on safe-haven demand.”

A weaker dollar, robust central bank purchases, rising demand for gold-backed Exchange-Traded Funds, and growing interest from retail investors looking to hedge against rising trade and geopolitical tensions are all contributing factors, she added.

The demand for gold-backed ETFs, futures, and associated financial instruments is being supported by robust safe-haven flows, which are being pushed by concerns about de-dollarisation around the world. All of the major long-term bullish factors for the metal are still in place, particularly the continued decline in the USD and the robust central bank allocation.

Aksha Kamboj, vice-president of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association and the executive chairperson of Aspect Global Ventures, said, “Gold prices hit record highs, driven by strong demand amid the ongoing US government shutdown, which has delayed the release of key economic data. Despite a nearly 50 per cent rally in 2025 so far, investors continue to favour gold as uncertainty lingers.”

In the international market, gold surged past the $3,900-an-ounce level for the first time on Monday. US spot gold was up 0.9% at $3,922.28 per ounce by 0208 GMT, after hitting an all-time high of $3,924.39 earlier in the session. US gold futures for December delivery gained 1% to $3,947.30.

“Silver climbed above $48.3 per ounce as the ongoing US government shutdown and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts boosted demand for safe-haven assets. Lawmakers once again failed to secure a funding deal, delaying key major data releases, including September’s jobs report,” said Jigar Trivedi, senior research analyst at Reliance Securities.

Gold Price Prediction 2025: Can This Rally Continue?

Analysts say market participants are now almost fully pricing in a quarter-point Fed rate cut this month and another in December. Investors will now closely track remarks from Fed Governor Stephen Miran on Wednesday, the release of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, and Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Thursday for further policy signals.

Renisha Chainani of Augmont said gold December futures have given a breakout above its previous week’s high of $3922 (~Rs 118,000); the next target is $4000 (~Rs 122,000).

“One needs to be cautious on the buy side, as this rally is very steep, and we could witness profit-booking anytime. If prices fall below $3850 (~Rs 117,500), then we could say prices have topped out and see further profit booking,” she added.

Darshan Desai, chief executive officer of Aspect Bullion & Refinery, said, “At these elevated levels, some investors may look to take partial profits, especially since the risk-reward for new positions doesn’t look attractive right now. A dip could offer a better entry point for those looking to invest.”

Gold Rate Today: 24 Carats & 22 Carats

In Mumbai and Pune, the price of 24-carat gold stood at Rs 1,20,770 per 10 grams, while 22k gold was available at Rs 1,10,700 per 10 grams. These rates do not include GST and making charges.

Silver was available at Rs 1,54,900 per kg.