Is The UK Breaking Up? Why Scotland, Wales And Northern Ireland Leaders Are Meeting In Cardiff

A day after US President Donald Trump said a “unified Ireland is going to happen eventually”, the leaders of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are meeting in Cardiff to sign a deal aimed at preparing for constitutional change and potentially the break-up of the United Kingdom.

The three first ministers, all representing pro-independence parties, are expected to call on the British government to “prepare, plan and facilitate constitutional change” in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Scottish National Party leader John Swinney, Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth, Sinn Fein Vice-President Michelle O’Neill and Sinn Fein President Mary Lou McDonald said in a joint statement on Sunday that they would meet in Cardiff to “strengthen the cooperation

of Wales, Scotland and Ireland” and work towards constitutional change.

Why The Leaders Are Meeting

The meeting comes after Labour suffered losses in the devolved elections in Wales in May. For the first time, pro-independence parties are in power across all three of the UK’s devolved nations — Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

In Wales, Plaid Cymru became the largest party in the Cardiff Senedd in May, with ap Iorwerth becoming first minister. The SNP also strengthened its position as the dominant party in Scotland.

In Northern Ireland, Sinn Fein won the Assembly elections in 2022. A walkout by the Democratic Unionist Party later led to Michelle O’Neill becoming first minister in 2024. Sinn Fein is expected to retain its hold on the votes in Northern Ireland next year, The Telegraph reported.

Swinney, ap Iorwerth and O’Neill will attend the Cardiff summit along with McDonald, Sinn Fein’s president and leader of the opposition in Ireland.

Swinney said the meeting came at a “pivotal moment of constitutional change”. He said the parties shared the belief that their interests would not be served by Westminster and that people in the three nations should have “a meaningful say over their future”.

Burnham’s Scottish Referendum Remarks

The summit also follows a row over UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s comments on a possible second Scottish independence referendum.

During Prime Minister’s Questions last week, Burnham suggested that both Scotland and Northern Ireland could consider a vote if there was a “clear consensus” that public opinion had changed.

Responding to an SNP MP who raised the lack of formal secession mechanisms for Scotland compared with Northern Ireland, Burnham said a border poll in Northern Ireland could be triggered by a clear public consensus. He said the “same situation” applied to Scotland.

However, Scotland has no equivalent statutory trigger for such a vote.

Burnham later wrote to Swinney saying Scottish independence and a referendum were “off limits”. A source close to Swinney told the Sunday Telegraph, “Burnham doesn’t seem to know the basics of the UK Government’s position on the Union.”

Burnham said he had been “simply highlighting that there is no consensus for an independence referendum in Scotland”.

‘Post-UK Future’

Swinney had written to Burnham on Thursday seeking talks on how an “agreed legal mechanism” for a Scottish independence referendum could be established after the prime minister’s remarks.

Following Burnham’s clarification, Swinney said the prime minister was “facing up to the idea that he will go down in history as the final prime minister of the United Kingdom”.

On Sunday, Swinney said the current situation was “not sustainable”.

“For the first time ever, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are led by pro-independence first ministers. There could be no clearer sign that the status quo is not sustainable – and that Westminster must prepare for a post-UK future,” he said, according to The Telegraph.

The Cardiff meeting therefore comes as the three devolved nations seek closer cooperation and push for a greater say over their constitutional futures, while Westminster continues to reject another Scottish independence vote.