Nifty Set For Rally On Tuesday As India-US Trade Deal Sparks 600-Point Surge In GIFT Nifty

Nifty Prediction For Tuesday, February 3: The Indian equity markets are braced for a historic opening this Tuesday, February 3, 2026, as a late-night announcement from across the US on the much-awaited

trade deal with India has sent global sentiment into a frenzy. US President Donald Trump‘s late-Monday post on Truth Social, detailing a massive trade breakthrough with India following a phone conversation Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has acted as a high-octane fuel for the Indian stock indices, with the Nifty futures, or GIFT Nifty, already skyrocketing by over 600 points in overnight trade.

US Tariffs On Indian Goods Reduced From 25% To 18%

The catalyst for this unprecedented optimism is a sweeping trade agreement between the world’s two largest democracies. In the Truth Social post, Trump announced that following a call with PM Modi, the US is immediately slashing reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 18%.

Also Read: India-US Trade Deal Explained: How Indian Exports Stand To Gain, Sectors That Benefit The Most

“It was an Honor to speak with Prime Minister Modi, of India, this morning. He is one of my greatest friends and, a Powerful and Respected Leader of his Country. We spoke about many things, including Trade, and ending the War with Russia and Ukraine. He agreed to stop buying Russian Oil, and to buy much more from the United States and, potentially, Venezuela. This will help END THE WAR in Ukraine, which is taking place right now, with thousands of people dying each and every week!” Trump stated.

In the post, he added, “Out of friendship and respect for Prime Minister Modi and, as per his request, effective immediately, we agreed to a Trade Deal between the United States and India, whereby the United States will charge a reduced Reciprocal Tariff, lowering it from 25% to 18%. They will likewise move forward to reduce their Tariffs and Non Tariff Barriers against the United States, to ZERO. The Prime Minister also committed to “BUY AMERICAN,” at a much higher level, in addition to over $500 BILLION DOLLARS of U.S. Energy, Technology, Agricultural, Coal, and many other products.”

What to Expect On February 3: Nifty Prediction

Based on the current GIFT Nifty trajectory, the NSE Nifty 50 is expected to open with a massive gap-up, likely testing the 25,600-25,700 range in the early trade.

Export-Oriented Sectors: IT and textiles are set to lead the charge. The reduction in US reciprocal tariffs to 18% provides immediate margin relief for Indian exporters who were reeling under previous trade barriers.

Energy & OMCs: While the shift from Russian oil is a major structural change, the $500-billion energy commitment suggests deep long-term ties with US energy giants, which could see heavy movement in energy stocks.

Banking & Financials: With the dark clouds of global trade uncertainty lifting, heavyweights like HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank are expected to provide the necessary muscle to keep the Nifty above the 25,500 psychological mark.

“Our amazing relationship with India will be even stronger going forward. PM Modi and I are two people that GET THINGS DONE,” Trump posted, effectively wiping out the cautious “wait-and-watch” sentiment that had gripped the Dalal Street.

Monday’s Recovery: Setting the Stage

On Monday, February 2, the Indian markets had already shown remarkable resilience. Despite opening flat, the Nifty 50 climbed 262 points (1.06%) to close at 25,088.40, while the Sensex jumped 943 points to finish at 81,666.52. This recovery signaled that the market was ready to look past domestic tax tweaks toward larger global growth drivers.

The Budget 2026 ‘STT Crash’

Just 48 hours ago, the mood was starkly different. On Sunday, February 1, the Indian markets suffered a post-Budget 2026 crash following Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s proposal to hike the Securities Transaction Tax (STT) in F&O trading.

The hike, raising STT on Futures from 0.02% to 0.05% and on Options from 0.10% to 0.15%, had initially triggered a wave of panic selling in the derivatives segment, causing the Nifty to tumble nearly 500 points in a single session.